July 25, 2022

BIDENFLATION: There Are Signs Inflation May Have Peaked, but Can It Come Down Fast Enough?

Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, pointed to many indicators that 9.1% might have been the top. Gasoline prices have fallen around 10% from their mid-June high point of $5.02 a gallon, according to AAA. Wheat futures prices have fallen by 37% since mid-May and corn futures prices are down 27% from mid-June. The cost of shipping goods from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast is 11.4% lower than a month ago, according to Xeneta, a Norway-based transportation-data and procurement firm.

Easing price pressures and improvements in backlogs and supplier delivery times in business surveys suggest that supply-chain snarls are unraveling. Mr. Hyman noted that money-supply growth has slowed sharply, evidence that monetary tightening is starting to bite.

We still have drought, fertilizer shortages, reduced domestic energy production, and a lot of unspent stimulus money filling state coffers — all inflationary.

But on the money supply side, Democrats seem to have (mostly) run out of steam conjuring up funny money by the trillions. And on the demand side, tapped out consumers and rising interest rates are both putting a damper on demand.

So inflation will abate at some point, but it will still be at least another two years before wages catch up to where they were two years ago.

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