DON’T GET COCKY: Republicans Are Favored to Win the Senate.

Recently there has been a spate of stories about Republicans’ difficulties in taking over the Senate. These analyses typically focus on candidates’ poor polling numbers in key states and the weakness of the Republican recruiting class.

These aren’t absurd analyses; I’ve referred to the battle between the overall electoral environment and Republican candidate quality as “the irresistible force versus the immovable object” in previous columns. Had the Republican Party fielded its A-team in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, we probably would not be talking about Democrats even having a shot at retaining the Senate.

At the same time, we shouldn’t get carried away. While Republican candidate quality is an issue, good analysis should not lose sight of the fact that environment matters as well, and probably more so these days. President Joe Biden’s job approval is 37.7% in the RealClearPolitics Average, a mark reached only briefly by former President Donald Trump in August and December of 2017, and never touched by former President Barack Obama. While the map isn’t as favorable for Republicans as it will be in 2024, it isn’t unfavorable, either.

I have no idea who will control the Senate, but I suspect there will be a lot of protest votes against Biden, or at least a lot of no-shows.