RICHARD FERNANDEZ: What if Things Don’t Go Back to Normal? “The failure of zero Covid, the Afghan collapse before the Taliban, the unexpected energy dependency of Europe on Russian gas, and the stubborn failure of Ukraine to collapse before the Putin blitz caught the experts by surprise and shows all too clearly the limits of prediction. Gone for now is the touching belief the policymakers had in models.”

I’m not so sure about that last part, but I am sure most people’s belief in policymakers is shattered.