CRISIS BY DESIGN: DHS preparing for unprecedented Title 42 border rush of up to 18,000 migrants per day.

In other words, our border resources are stretched with the number of daily encounters near the peaks we saw last summer, but a CDC announcement that Title 42 is ending could send 2 1/2 times as many migrants to the border in any given day. The border patrol doesn’t have the manpower, transportation capability or holding facilities to deal with all those people.

Of course there are all sorts of caveats here. For one, DHS is saying this is just a worst case scenario not a prediction. Also, there are probably tens of thousands of people waiting on the other side of the border who would try to cross if Title 42 were to end but there may not be enough to sustain levels as high as 18,000 per day (540,000 per month!) for very long. At that rate, maybe the surge would only last a couple weeks before the backlog dies down.

On the other hand, what we’ve seen in the past several years, since at least the Obama administration, is that anytime word goes out that crossing the border has become easier, there is a fresh surge of migrants.

Incentives matter.