FOR PJMEDIA/TOWNHALL VIP SUPPORTERS: Vladimir Putin, National Honor, and the Folly of War.

Why did Putin give the order to do the thing I honestly thought he wouldn’t do — and how do I (and the rest of the world) avoid making a similar miscalculation in the future?

I didn’t entirely discount Putin starting a war. Last month I noted for PJ Media readers that Russia had sortied six amphibious assault ships — a significant fraction of Russian naval power. That flotilla posed a direct threat to Ukraine’s major port at Odessa, and I’ve seen at least one report (who knows, at this early stage, if it’s true) that Russian troops have indeed landed there.

“That’s the major reason why a full-scale Russia vs. Ukraine war suddenly looks more likely than ever,” I wrote back then.

Still, I figured that most likely, Putin was bluffing, merely trying to destabilize Ukraine.

The late, great historian Donald Kagan might have known better.

If you’re a subscriber, or thinking of becoming one, you’ll want to read the whole thing.