DON’T GET COCKY: For Democrats, the future goes from bad to worse.

Democrats better hope things are darkest before the dawn because they now face a series of challenges that combine to offer a bleak near-term future for their party.

As I argued three weeks ago in this column space, two trends were preparing to collide in Virginia — Democrats’ growing strength in the commonwealth and in a handful of increasingly influential suburbs, and the midterm dynamic, which favors the party not controlling the White House. I suggested that the outcome would likely tell us something about 2022.

Well, the results from Virginia and, even more, from New Jersey, delivered nothing but bad news for Democrats.

In the Virginia governor’s race, Republican Glenn Youngkin won by 2 points just a year after Joe Biden carried the state by 10 points. In New Jersey, long-shot Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli came within 3 points of upsetting the state’s sitting governor, Democrat Phil Murphy. Democrats also lost control of the Virginia House of Delegates.

Yes, there were local factors at play. Youngkin turned out to be a very good campaigner, and in the Garden State, property taxes helped Ciattarelli almost pull off the upset.

But the results confirm that the midterm dynamic was much stronger this year than were the fundamental trends in both states. That’s great news for Republicans heading into 2022.

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