MOLLIE HEMINGWAY: The Media Are Lying About The Election Again.

Incredibly, both NBC News and the Cook Political Report continue to rate Florida as “Lean Democrat” according to their “experts.” No offense, but do they think people are stupid? [Think it? They’re counting on it. –Steve]

Trump won Florida by more than one point four years ago and a state Democrats were unable to carry in 2018, when they lost both the governor and senate races. That year, the RCP polling average predicted Florida Democrat Andrew Gillum would win by 3.6 points. He in fact lost narrowly to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. The RCP polling average predicted Democrat Bill Nelson would win by 2.4. He lost to Rick Scott narrowly. Those polling averages were less off than the final result mostly because Trafalgar called the race correctly.

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows a 10-point momentum in Florida toward Trump, where he trails within the margin of error, and where Trafalgar has the president ahead by three points. (For what it’s worth, Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly poll key states in the 2016 and 2018 races.)

The media and the Democrats may not like it, but this race is clearly different from where it was at the end of June, where Trump’s job approval had been going down for three straight months and he bottomed out at 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Today Trump’s job approval is on a three-month upswing and is over 44 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Three points may not seem like a lot, but in the real world where the critical battleground states will likely be decided by less than that amount, three points are the difference between winning and losing.

It isn’t that Mollie Hemingway is wrong about anything in this column, it’s just that this is no time to get cocky.