SWEDEN: Some people are pointing to the contrast between Sweden and Norway as a useful model for our situation. Sweden is one of the few countries that has not shut things down drastically. Instead its leaders say that they are relying on people’s common sense. By contrast, the otherwise similarly situated Norway has taken an approach more like ours. Many people are thus pointing to the fact that while Sweden’s population (about 10 million) is twice Norway’s (about 5 million), Sweden has only about 30% more confirmed cases. That sounds good … at least at first blush.

But numbers can be deceiving. While Sweden’s population is twice Norway’s, its number of deaths from among confirmed cases is more than six times higher than Norway’s. The difference is unlikely to be the quality of Swedish health care. My initial thought was that it was much more likely that Norway has tested more symptomatic people in its population than Sweden has. Sweden therefore may have a higher proportion of unconfirmed but nevertheless very real cases.  They just aren’t being counted.

Testing kits remain in short supply. Most countries are able to test only a proportion of the individuals who are symptomatic. It may well be the case that to get the test in Sweden one needs to be sicker than one does in Norway.

I checked this against the data on Real Clear Politics and sure enough, Norway has given massively more tests (113,896) than Sweden has given (54,700), despite Sweden’s much larger population.

We need more analysis.