DON’T GET COCKY: The latest battleground poll tells us Democrats are over-correcting for 2020 — and they can’t beat Trump that way.

The three key states, based on the 2016 results, are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Trump became the first Republican since 1984 to win Wisconsin and the first since 1988 to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. The narrow margin of around 70,000 votes in all three states was enough to win the electoral college and sweep Trump into office.

Democrats must win those states to defeat Trump, who doesn’t care if he doesn’t win the popular vote. The problem, however, is voters in those states may not want to go all in with Sanders’ or Warren’s big spending plans, which include Medicare-for-All.

On Medicare-for-All, it is not difficult to see the message from the GOP and Trump as the campaign moves into 2020. While PA, MI, and WI are no longer the manufacturing powerhouses they were 40 or 50 years ago, they still employ a decent number of union workers who have great healthcare benefits through their employers. How will they react to getting presented with a proposal that will take away their private plan and put in the hands of the federal government?

For many people, even those inclined to vote for Democrats, words that still make them cringe are, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

Whether people want to credit Trump or not, the reality in politics is that the person in the Oval Office gets the credit or blame for the economy. With the unemployment rate at 3.6 per cent, low interest rates, no inflation, and a stock market that is humming along, Democrats have to convince voters Trump doesn’t deserve another term as re-election races are almost always a referendum on the incumbent.

Another Trump advantage: He always looks like he’s having fun on the campaign trail. Every single one of the Democratic contenders is a real eat-your-peas type.