THAT WOULD BE NICE: A Growth Surprise Could Shock Markets. “Better economic data suggests expectations of low long-term yields may be overdone.”

Slowdown risks may be fading already, as recent data pointed in a healthier direction for China and the U.S., the dominant forces in the global economy. On Friday, U.S. jobs data for March came in higher than expected. And Chinese manufacturing surveys for March picked up after a rough start to the year.

“A surprise in the second half would be a bigger issue, if it turns out significantly stronger again then the bond market will be in for a real shock,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research, Barclays .

A healthier U.S. growth picture could be a trigger. The first-quarter was artificially weak and difficult to estimate because of things like the government shutdown, the polar vortex and last year’s boost from tax cuts, said Ralf Preusser, rates strategist at Bank of America . “But the labor market is solid and fiscal policy remains supportive,” he said. He added: “I think there is quite a high chance of a positive GDP surprise, Q2 and Q3 should be above trend.”

Remember, economists have correctly predicted nine out of the previous four recessions, and two others they never saw coming.