GREAT POWER POLITICS: China Plays the Japan Card.

The reason for Xi’s apparent turnabout is clear enough: Relations with Washington are rapidly getting worse, and President Donald Trump is not backing down from either his trade war or his increase in U.S. military operations in maritime areas claimed by China. Beijing’s bluff and bluster has failed, and Xi likely is realizing that he is in for a long war of attrition with Washington.

Thus, the Japan card. Beijing needs to remain an attractive trade partner, especially given Abe’s success in pushing through the Trans-Pacific Partnership after Trump’s withdrawal and in signing a new free-trade pact with the European Union. Perhaps Xi believes that Tokyo will be enticed to join Beijing’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, leaving only America out in the cold. Promising to ease the pressure over the Senkakus is an easy concession by Xi, given that Tokyo remains committed to defending them. Perhaps, if relations appear to warm enough, Beijing will try to persuade Tokyo to slow down its increases in defense spending.

If the Japan card works for Beijing, what’s in it for Tokyo? As China represents the greatest long-term threat to Japan’s security, Abe is eager for any reprieve in the pressure Xi has brought to bear since taking office, even though he has been uncommonly successful in reaching out to other Asian leaders and positioning himself as an alternative to dealing with the often overbearing Chinese. The summit with Xi will bolster his diplomatic credibility while also potentially opening up Chinese markets that could help keep his economic plans on track. Yet Abe undoubtedly harbors no illusions as to why Xi is reaching out at this particular time.

In reality, there are all too few areas of common interest between Japan and China. The poisonous history between the two fuels nationalism in both countries, but especially in China. Their struggle for predominance in Asia remains a zero-sum game, as Japan under Mr. Abe has assiduously deepened its relations with India, in Southeast Asia, and with Australia, all due to fears of China’s growing military ambitions and its expansive Belt and Road Initiative. For his part, Xi has shown no inclination to back down from China’s assertive regional policies.

That last line is the key. China is a disruptive power, full of seething grievances and with territorial ambitions. The United States is none of those things, which makes it unlikely that Beijing can displace us as Japan’s (or South Korea’s, or Taiwan’s…) international partner, without the use of military force.