TURKEY’S REFERENDUM: The Dangerous Road to ‘Yes’

Turkey’s plebiscite will ask the electorate to cast a simple Yes/No vote on a slate of 18 proposed amendments to the constitution. Turkey has a long history of constitutional referendums – often heavily politicized – but the amendments proposed in this round are by far the most transformative. If Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) win the Yes vote, the position of prime minister will be abolished and President Erdogan will become both head of state and head of government. He will remain head of the ruling AK Party and will get the power to appoint cabinet ministers.

All this is relatively normal for a presidential system. However, the amendments sought by Erdogan would also grant him the power to issue legislation by decree, to dissolve parliament and to call new elections at will. According to Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the amendments would give Erdogan “strong control over Turkish finances and the judiciary branch.” Under the new system, Erdogan would personally appoint half of the judges in Turkey. A parliament controlled by his AKP would appoint the other half.

The proposed changes would give Erdogan unparalleled authority over the military and security apparatus. He would have the power to declare a state of emergency at will. In fact, the upcoming referendum will be held under a state of emergency, declared by Erdogan after the attempted military coup against him last July.

If Turks approve one-man rule, they’ll also lose the peaceful transfer of power enjoyed by democratic republics. So there’s the question of just how bad Erdogan’s dictatorship would be, but there’s also the question of who — or what — would follow Erdogan.