NORTH KOREA: A Significant Demonstration of Missile Know-How.

The latest launch only travelled 60 kilometres horizontally, but this should not necessarily be interpreted as a failure. The missile reached an altitude of 189 kilometres, well into outer space. This would seem to be a test of an alternative trajectory, which exposes the missile to different conditions. Re-entry testing could have been conducted on this flight.

There could be another explanation for the launch. This could be a test of elements of the submarine-launched missile from a land-based silo, or a test of systems common to both missiles.

We could be witnessing the evolution of both land and sea missiles at the same time, and a growing synergy between the two.

In any case, the development of these two classes of missiles represents a major development in North Korea’s strategic power.

Nazi Germany was able to build about 5,200 V-2 ballistic missiles in less than two years, all while being subjected to Allied bombardment and invasion on two fronts. That North Korea should be able to develop a thriving missile program seven decades later and under (nominally) peacetime conditions should come as no surprise. What we can’t afford to be surprised by is their ultimate intentions.