IT COULDN’T HAPPEN TO A NICER RELIGIOUS DICTATORSHIP: Saudi Arabia’s Bond Success Hides Its Financial Peril.
In truth, the bond sale was a rare bright spot in a series of economic and geopolitical missteps that have not only plunged Saudi Arabia into budgetary chaos but also weakened its grip on global oil markets. The Saudis are well aware of this — witness the firing this week of Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf despite the triumphant bond sale his ministry oversaw.
Riyadh is facing a sandstorm of economic and social challenges. The two-year decline in crude prices has left it with huge budget deficits: $98 billion last year and a projected $87 billion in 2016. This has forced the kingdom to tap into its cash reserves, which have declined from $732 billion at the end of 2014 to $562 billion last month. Last year, the International Monetary Fund predicted that if Saudi Arabia continued its current fiscal path, it could burn through its entire foreign exchange reserves by 2020.
In effect, Riyadh will end up putting the groceries on a new high-interest credit card they were supposed to use for going to school to learn a profitable trade.