August 19, 2016

SMALL WARS JOURNAL: Explaining the Obama Administration Overlooking Iran’s Cheating on the Nuke Deal.

There might be good reasons for the administration officials to overlook the facts. First, a public acknowledgement of Iran’s cheatings would unravel the agreement. Second, the unraveling of the agreement would result in Iran expelling the IAEA inspectors and expedite the nuclear weapons program. There is not enough time to utilize economic sanctions to stop the break out. Clearly, the Obama administration lacks credibility in making threats of military strikes after the administration’s refusal to enforce its red lines when Assad used chemical bombs against civilians. With the evaporation of Obama’s military deterrence, the actual use of military strikes is the only option left to stop Iran’s nuclear bomb, an option President Obama does not wish to use. Thus, by ignoring Iran’s violations, it is hoped that Iran would proceed slowly which would allow the Obama administration to postpone a forceful response to the next president. The next president’s threat of force might be the only option other than actual military strikes to convince Ayatollah Khamenei to stop going nuclear.

President Obama made a huge gamble. The evidence clearly shows that he lost the gamble.

I’ve been forced to conclude that a nuclear-armed Iran, welcomed back into the “community of nations,” may be exactly what Obama wanted all along.

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