IEA: Crude Production to Fall Behind Demand.

From July through September, global production of crude oil will fall behind demand by almost one million barrels a day, said the IEA, a Paris-based agency that monitors energy trends for oil-consuming nations. And the oversupply of crude is clearing out even as OPEC producers pump at record or near record levels.

“Our balances show essentially no oversupply during the second half of the year,” the IEA’s monthly report said Thursday.

That’s exactly what every idled fracker wants to hear.

The Saudis put an effective floor under the price of crude, by being able to produce plentiful supplies at a price few can match. But North American frackers have put an effective ceiling on the price of crude, by being able to tap even more plentiful supplies whenever the price rises too far above that floor.

It’s going to be a long time before our friends in the Middle East can count on $100 oil again.