GLASS HALF FULL PART 1 – Wow, Ben, thanks SO much for your cheerful posts. Law schools have failed their students, the good times are over for much of Big Law, small firm and solo lawyers have been losing ground for 25 years, and with computerization gearing up things will get worse for lawyers before they get better. Glass half what?
Well first of all, the easiest glass half full case is to look at each of the trends above from the perspective of the American consumer, who are obvious beneficiaries. Whatever else is coming in the future, it seems likely that legal services will be more widely available to more people and businesses at lower prices. This trend starts at the top with corporate law firms and bubbles up from the bottom with LegalZoom and other forms providers. Lawyers and legal fees are what economists call “transaction costs.” When transaction costs fall, more transactions occur and goods and services are more likely to end up with their highest value users.
The benefits will be especially marked for the poor and middle class. Most middle and low income Americans cannot afford to hire a lawyer. This means that many Americans cannot afford to have a will or get divorced or change child custody arrangements or defend themselves in eviction/foreclosure proceedings. Bar associations and advocates for the poor have argued for years that increased legal aid funding, required pro bono service or a civil Gideon right are the answers to these problems, i.e. more bespoke legal services by more government supported or volunteer lawyers. These solutions are deeply backward looking, analogue, 1960s-era solutions to a very serious issue.
Fortunately, except for the in-court portion of the problem (which could be fixable with some pretty basic court reforms), computerization is on the verge of bypassing the legal profession altogether. First generation online services may not be as good as a live lawyer (although everyone knows a lawyer whose work is already worse than what LegalZoom provides), but over time they will continue to improve. LegalZoom and Rocketlawyer are already superior to nothing, which is all most poor and middle income Americans can afford.
Even in-court work will grow cheaper as lawyers take advantage of forms and virtual offices. They will need to use these tools to survive, because more lawyers competing for less work will continue to drive prices down. Between technology, outsourcing, the flood of new law graduates, and the displaced lawyers now willing/forced to work for lower salaries, customers will suddenly (and for the first time in recent history) be paying much less for legal services. If you have enjoyed the digital revolution in music and photography, you will likewise enjoy the legal market in ten to twenty years. Legal services will be cheaper, more accessible, AND better. That’s bad for lawyers in the same way digital photography was bad for Kodak. It is outstanding news for the country as a whole.