UK ELECTION UPDATE: The polls show a moderate to large lead for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives, but because the electoral calculus has changed it’s still difficult to predict what might happen next week. Nevertheless, this analysis is extremely interesting.

Key paragraphs:

The media conception of who the swing voter in the UK is much the same as in the US – the fiscally conservative, socially liberal suburbanites who like tax cuts, “responsible” spending decisions, and who would feel perfectly comfortable living in any major US or European city. The media conception of this as the swing makes sense – these voters are in most metro areas, and if one spends enough time in well off circles, with professionals – lawyers, doctors, accountants, bankers, et all – it’s a viewpoint one would see quite frequently. Consequently, this is the swing voter the media thinks of – as New York, DC, or London media would frequently encounter that view in their work – either in their private lives after hours or in the seemingly endless amounts of charity dinners, functions, and galas that occur. The problem is, that isn’t the swing voter anymore, at least not the one that swings UK elections. Labour could do even better with that voter and still lose this election worse than any since the Second World War.

The new swing voter in the UK is the reason the Tories are on track for a large majority government. The new swing voter is the fiscally liberal, socially conservative voter who wants more money spent on northern towns and health care in regional areas and less money spent on “elites”, which routinely means whoever that voter isn’t a fan of. They’re wary of immigrants, mad at the Blair-era broken promise of only 13000/year net immigration from the 2004 EU Accession states – 250000/year would come in the decade after – and is annoyed by social issues that grip the modern left. This class of voter was staunchly Labour for decades, especially in the aftermath of Margaret Thatcher’s term in office. These voters were tempted by Theresa May last time, but went home to Labour because Corbyn did enough to reassure that Brexit would happen. With Labour policy now being a second referendum with an option to Remain – and every senior Labour politician outside Corbyn saying no possible deal is better than staying in – their likelihood of repeating their 2017 trick is somewhere between small and non-existant.

The old certainties are as much dust in the UK as in the US. It is quite possible that the Tories will win Sedgefield, Tony Blair’s old Durham mining constituency. To even suggest that five years ago would have been to invite scorn and derision.

BLOWBACK: Impeachment Is Great for Trump: Approval Rating Rises to 52%.

I’M NOT SAYING IT’S ALIENS… BUT IT’S ALIENS: No One Knows Why Rocks Are Exploding From Asteroid Bennu.

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE, “DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION” EDITION: Nearly 50% of Republican students say they’ve had a prof go on anti-Trump tangent.

KAEPERNICK WORKOUT LEADS TO JOB WITH THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS! Err, but not for Kaepernick: “But now, the Redskins have made a signing based (at least in part) on what they saw during the Kaepernick workout. The Skins signed to their practice squad one of the wide receivers to whom Kaepernick threw passes.”

IMPEACHMENT IS ABOUT GETTING TRUMP, NOT JUSTICE: Just in case anybody had any remaining doubts, former Obama Solicitor-General makes it clear. 

POSTMODERN DIPLOMACY: North Korea revives ‘dotard’ label in warning to Trump over ‘Rocket Man’ remarks.

ANOTHER VICTIM OF AMERICAN ISLAMOPHOBIA: Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro is clearly suffering from Islamophobia. Why else would he charge state Rep. Movita Johnson-Harrell (D), who is Muslim, with multiple counts of theft, perjury and tampering in connection with a charity she founded?

WELL, YES. THAT’S THE WHOLE POINT. Shoutdown culture shuts down traditional academic virtues. Garbage people with garbage ideas don’t want their garbage ideas challenged, for fear they’ll be revealed as garbage.

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KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Impeachment Is Quite the Cash Cow for President Trump.

The timing is really impressive. The sound from Pelosi’s voice had barely died down after her announcement yesterday when I got two texts asking me for money to help fight the impeachment witch hunt.

It doesn’t take a lot of deep political thought to see where this is headed. Even if the Democrats in the House vote to impeach — and it still isn’t a given that they’ll have the votes — the Senate will never convict.

The president, however, may end up with a campaign war chest the likes of which no incumbent has ever seen.

Impeach him, and he shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.

YEAH, PRETTY MUCH: Donald Trump was elected to break the elite. Of course they want to impeach him. “Trump’s supporters have known since election night that this day would eventually come. After all, his sworn enemies have been openly promising it since before he was sworn into office! They’ve used words like ‘resistance,’ ‘coup,’ ‘insurance policy,’ and ‘impeachment’ so often that, now that they are actually doing it, the American people — and Republicans especially — are offering a collective yawn.”

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE: More Evidence Emerges That Federal Government Is Funding Worthless College Degrees.

Really? Do tell. If only there had been some sort of warning.

CHANGE: U.S. trade deficit falls 7.6% in October to 16-month low on decline in Chinese imports.

AMERICANS PROPERLY FOCUSED ON THE IMPORTANT STORIES OF THE DAY: “This week there have been more US Google searches for Peloton than impeachment.”

SHOULD TRUMP PROSECUTE HER FOR VIOLATING THE LOGAN ACT? I REMEMBER WHEN THAT WAS A THING. Pelosi flouts Trump at climate conference on Paris agreement: ‘We are still in.’

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OK, WHEN DID THE GUYS IN THE WHITE HOODS DRAW NADLER’S DISTRICT? It’s 70 percent white in a metropolis in which one of every four residents is Black.  Just asking, OK?

GOOD: Trump Administration Drops Plans For Mandatory Face Scans of Citizens.

The agency has been testing facial recognition screening at several airports, though U.S. citizens and permanent residents are currently allowed to opt out.

At airports, officials take photos of travelers and a computer then compares them to the traveler’s passport image or other photos that the agency stores in the cloud. In some places, screening technology is used during the boarding process for nonresidents departing the U.S.

The technology has also been tested at seaports and border crossings, including on the southern border.

But privacy advocates have pointed to a June data breach as one of the reasons that the agency should not collect the information. DHS last summer acknowledged a cyberattack against a contractor that exposed the photos and license plates of nearly 100,000 people traveling in and out of the country at a border crossing.

It’s nice not to follow China’s footsteps on this one.

JULIE KELLY: The Deep State Has the Sadz (and That’s a Very Good Thing).

ANN ALTHOUSE SAYS THE MAIN THING PEOPLE WILL REMEMBER FROM THE LAWPROFS’ IMPEACHMENT TESTIMONY IS THAT THEY MOCKED A KID: “Watch that clip again. She believes she’s got something. But it was too good of a line. Everyone noticed. And now, it’s almost the only thing that was noticed in all that tangle of law/’law’ that the professors strewed before us yesterday. So it was a big fail for the anti-Trump lawprofs. The look of it from a distance was that they hate Trump and they were called by politicians who hate Trump to express hate for Trump.”

TWO CBS NEWS IN ONE!

Shot: Is there a better way to raise boys to avoid toxic masculinity?

—CBS News, yesterday.

Chaser: CBS Cheers Biden Punching Down at Iowa Voter Like a ‘Prizefighter.’

—Nicholas Fondacaro, NewsBusters, yesterday.