Archive for 2018

CRACKDOWN: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Declares “The End Of The ’96 Sedition.”

Ed Morrissey:

The mullahs apparently didn’t want to wait to see whether its Astroturf protests would turn things around for them. Interestingly, they’re aiming the crackdown outside of Tehran and Qom, the two most significant cities for the ruling mullahs, and probably the most accessible to outside journalists. They want to quell the uprising outside of the view of the world, but more importantly, outside the view of other Iranians to the greatest extent possible.

This becomes the critical point of the uprising. The mullahs needed to act before the spirit of revolution infected the IRGC, but also before it got too far among the population. If the latter is true, an armed response to demonstrations might provoke an even wider rebellion that could overwhelm the IRGC. That’s why the mullahs waited this long before ordering their palace guards to open fire on the regime’s subjects. If they’ve mistimed the crackdown, it might be an end to the mullahs’ run of 7th-century rule by 21st-century technology.

At this point, however, the mullahs have given an opening for international intervention, including the reapplication of sanctions that the deal with Barack Obama ended. Donald Trump has been itching to reinstate those sanctions but has been held off by both the deal and our Western allies, who wanted to consider the matter closed. If the IRGC is opening fire on unarmed Iranians for dissent, they will have no choice but to take action, and it might even force Russia and China to allow for emergency action from the UN Security Council. That will make the economic situation even worse, which will prompt more protests — and perhaps disincentivize the IRGC rank and file in the longer run.

Watch for reports from dissenters about the status of the protests.

That might not be easy given Tehran’s social media crackdown, but to paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, dissent finds a way.

SCOTT ADAMS: The Demolition President. “President Trump has delivered on a number of promises for his base. But there was an impressive amount of breakage along the way. You might say he President Trump did as much demolition as he did construction. The press is doing a good job of telling us what he accomplished in 2017. But they keep leaving out all the stuff he broke that probably needed to be broken. I’ll fix that for you here.”

YOU CAN’T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS: Former acting AG Sally Yates criticizes Trump for referring to career Justice Department officials as the “Deep State” You can’t go around trying to organize anti-Trump “resistance” in the federal civil service–or in Yates’ case actually engaging in real resistance by refusing to carry out your duties when you disagree with the president–and then squawk when the president suggests that the civil service may not be exactly neutral on the issues of the day. Trump’s best allies are the Obama administration veterans who live up to all his worst rhetoric.

(Bumped, by Glenn).
 

HMM: Russia’s radar shortcomings are a US problem now.

Gaps and limitations in Russia’s early warning capability have long been documented by foreign observers. And while North Korea has never been the adversary Russian radars are designed to watch, a failure to see North Korean ICBMs could mean Russia instead detects missile interceptors fired by the United States as a unique threat, rather than a response to a launch by Pyongyang. (Joshua Pollack explored that possibility, complete with diagrams and maps in 2009.)

In December 2016 Russia boasted that it completed construction of its early-warning coverage, and in December 2017, Russia’s Air and Space Forces announced the start of combat operations at its last three early warning sites.

And there remains a curious omission: Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov took until December to acknowledge that North Korea had any ICBMs at all, and even then, only acknowledged the November test of the much larger Hwasong-15.

All this leaves a distinct possibility that, should North Korea launch a Hwasong-14, Russia would be unable to see the smaller ICBM as what it actually is, and in what would invariably be a tense hour, might misread actions and intentions after that point.

That’s disconcerting.

IS ABORTION OR BIRTH CONTROL WHY U.S. PREGNANCY RATE IS DECLINING? A Middlebury College professor says the data shows its mostly the easy availability of abortion. Others think near-universal access to birth control is the culprit. Still others say there is no one cause but rather a bunch of related factors. Whatever the reason, declining birth rates in Western nations is a huge worry. Or should be.

 

A “NEBULOUS FOG” OF ACCUSATIONS: Female professor sues university after being subject to ‘malicious’ Title IX investigation.

A chemistry professor at George Washington University is suing the school after it allegedly subject her to a “malicious” sexual harassment investigation.

Chemistry and international affairs professor Catherine Woytowicz accused the university of “15 different infractions” in a recently filed lawsuit, according to The GW Hatchet.

“In a 249-page complaint,” The Hatchet reports, Woytowicz “claims that the University’s handling of the case represented a breach of contract and violated her rights under the First and Fifth Amendments and the D.C. Human Rights Act.”

Woytowicz was accused of sexual harassment by a male student but that the accusations “were later found to be unfounded,” according to The Hatchet. In the meantime, the plaintiff says she was subject to “malicious” treatment “by Title IX Coordinator Rory Muhammad, chemistry department chair Michael King and various other officials.”

University officials “barred her from teaching courses that she had taught for years, according to the complaint.”

Well, now that this is happening to women, maybe someone will do something about it.

PROHIBITION 2.0: In Virginia, only the government can sell liquor. Here’s why, in a short film from the Federalist Society, featuring my colleague Angela Logomasini.

THE GAS RATION HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM FOUR LITERS TO THREE: Oil-Rich Venezuela Is Out Of Gasoline.

“Gentlemen: There is no more gasoline in Venezuela. In Venezuela, we are out of gas. In Venezuela, there is no gas oil. In Venezuela, there are no lube oils,” said Iván Freites in a televised press conference. Freites is the secretary of the professional and technician division of the United Federation of Venezuelan Petroleum Workers.

In his address, Freites said that poor management led to the stoppage of 80 per cent of the country’s refineries. “Only Amuay and Cardón refineries are operative and that is nothing. They produce 40,000 barrels per day and the national demand is over 200,000 barrels of gas per day,” he said.

Venezuela’s oil production has fallen to levels not seeing since the late-1980s. According to the latest OPEC report, which is based on information provided by the Nicolás Maduro government, the country is producing about 2.3 million barrels of oil per day. In October, it experienced the steepest fall in production of 2017, as only 1.9 million barrels were extracted, 130,000 barrels less than the previous month. The oil industry, however, is still the major source of income as it generates about 96 per cent of the foreign exchange.

“Can you imagine how much it would be to bring our refineries back to operation? To recover production in the Eastern Coast of the Lake (of Maracaibo)?” Iván Freites asked during the media brief.

A question Venezuelans need to ask, and loudly: “Where did the money go?”