Archive for 2018

CRACKDOWN: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Declares “The End Of The ’96 Sedition.”

Ed Morrissey:

The mullahs apparently didn’t want to wait to see whether its Astroturf protests would turn things around for them. Interestingly, they’re aiming the crackdown outside of Tehran and Qom, the two most significant cities for the ruling mullahs, and probably the most accessible to outside journalists. They want to quell the uprising outside of the view of the world, but more importantly, outside the view of other Iranians to the greatest extent possible.

This becomes the critical point of the uprising. The mullahs needed to act before the spirit of revolution infected the IRGC, but also before it got too far among the population. If the latter is true, an armed response to demonstrations might provoke an even wider rebellion that could overwhelm the IRGC. That’s why the mullahs waited this long before ordering their palace guards to open fire on the regime’s subjects. If they’ve mistimed the crackdown, it might be an end to the mullahs’ run of 7th-century rule by 21st-century technology.

At this point, however, the mullahs have given an opening for international intervention, including the reapplication of sanctions that the deal with Barack Obama ended. Donald Trump has been itching to reinstate those sanctions but has been held off by both the deal and our Western allies, who wanted to consider the matter closed. If the IRGC is opening fire on unarmed Iranians for dissent, they will have no choice but to take action, and it might even force Russia and China to allow for emergency action from the UN Security Council. That will make the economic situation even worse, which will prompt more protests — and perhaps disincentivize the IRGC rank and file in the longer run.

Watch for reports from dissenters about the status of the protests.

That might not be easy given Tehran’s social media crackdown, but to paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, dissent finds a way.

SCOTT ADAMS: The Demolition President. “President Trump has delivered on a number of promises for his base. But there was an impressive amount of breakage along the way. You might say he President Trump did as much demolition as he did construction. The press is doing a good job of telling us what he accomplished in 2017. But they keep leaving out all the stuff he broke that probably needed to be broken. I’ll fix that for you here.”

YOU CAN’T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS: Former acting AG Sally Yates criticizes Trump for referring to career Justice Department officials as the “Deep State” You can’t go around trying to organize anti-Trump “resistance” in the federal civil service–or in Yates’ case actually engaging in real resistance by refusing to carry out your duties when you disagree with the president–and then squawk when the president suggests that the civil service may not be exactly neutral on the issues of the day. Trump’s best allies are the Obama administration veterans who live up to all his worst rhetoric.

(Bumped, by Glenn).
 

HMM: Russia’s radar shortcomings are a US problem now.

Gaps and limitations in Russia’s early warning capability have long been documented by foreign observers. And while North Korea has never been the adversary Russian radars are designed to watch, a failure to see North Korean ICBMs could mean Russia instead detects missile interceptors fired by the United States as a unique threat, rather than a response to a launch by Pyongyang. (Joshua Pollack explored that possibility, complete with diagrams and maps in 2009.)

In December 2016 Russia boasted that it completed construction of its early-warning coverage, and in December 2017, Russia’s Air and Space Forces announced the start of combat operations at its last three early warning sites.

And there remains a curious omission: Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov took until December to acknowledge that North Korea had any ICBMs at all, and even then, only acknowledged the November test of the much larger Hwasong-15.

All this leaves a distinct possibility that, should North Korea launch a Hwasong-14, Russia would be unable to see the smaller ICBM as what it actually is, and in what would invariably be a tense hour, might misread actions and intentions after that point.

That’s disconcerting.

IS ABORTION OR BIRTH CONTROL WHY U.S. PREGNANCY RATE IS DECLINING? A Middlebury College professor says the data shows its mostly the easy availability of abortion. Others think near-universal access to birth control is the culprit. Still others say there is no one cause but rather a bunch of related factors. Whatever the reason, declining birth rates in Western nations is a huge worry. Or should be.

 

A “NEBULOUS FOG” OF ACCUSATIONS: Female professor sues university after being subject to ‘malicious’ Title IX investigation.

A chemistry professor at George Washington University is suing the school after it allegedly subject her to a “malicious” sexual harassment investigation.

Chemistry and international affairs professor Catherine Woytowicz accused the university of “15 different infractions” in a recently filed lawsuit, according to The GW Hatchet.

“In a 249-page complaint,” The Hatchet reports, Woytowicz “claims that the University’s handling of the case represented a breach of contract and violated her rights under the First and Fifth Amendments and the D.C. Human Rights Act.”

Woytowicz was accused of sexual harassment by a male student but that the accusations “were later found to be unfounded,” according to The Hatchet. In the meantime, the plaintiff says she was subject to “malicious” treatment “by Title IX Coordinator Rory Muhammad, chemistry department chair Michael King and various other officials.”

University officials “barred her from teaching courses that she had taught for years, according to the complaint.”

Well, now that this is happening to women, maybe someone will do something about it.

PROHIBITION 2.0: In Virginia, only the government can sell liquor. Here’s why, in a short film from the Federalist Society, featuring my colleague Angela Logomasini.

THE GAS RATION HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM FOUR LITERS TO THREE: Oil-Rich Venezuela Is Out Of Gasoline.

“Gentlemen: There is no more gasoline in Venezuela. In Venezuela, we are out of gas. In Venezuela, there is no gas oil. In Venezuela, there are no lube oils,” said Iván Freites in a televised press conference. Freites is the secretary of the professional and technician division of the United Federation of Venezuelan Petroleum Workers.

In his address, Freites said that poor management led to the stoppage of 80 per cent of the country’s refineries. “Only Amuay and Cardón refineries are operative and that is nothing. They produce 40,000 barrels per day and the national demand is over 200,000 barrels of gas per day,” he said.

Venezuela’s oil production has fallen to levels not seeing since the late-1980s. According to the latest OPEC report, which is based on information provided by the Nicolás Maduro government, the country is producing about 2.3 million barrels of oil per day. In October, it experienced the steepest fall in production of 2017, as only 1.9 million barrels were extracted, 130,000 barrels less than the previous month. The oil industry, however, is still the major source of income as it generates about 96 per cent of the foreign exchange.

“Can you imagine how much it would be to bring our refineries back to operation? To recover production in the Eastern Coast of the Lake (of Maracaibo)?” Iván Freites asked during the media brief.

A question Venezuelans need to ask, and loudly: “Where did the money go?”

MARK PULLIAM: Anatomy of a Witch Hunt: The Politically Motivated Prosecution of Texas AG Ken Paxton. “In the annals of ‘lawfare’ — the weaponized use of the legal system to punish a political enemy — one must distinguish between a random ‘drive-by’ motivated by spite or revenge, versus carefully orchestrated schemes calculated to achieve regime change: removal of an elected official by defeated rivals. Both types of lawfare constitute a serious abuse of the legal system, but the latter variety — exemplified by Wisconsin’s notorious ‘John Doe’ investigation into Gov. Scott Walker’s campaign and the baseless prosecution of Texas Gov. Rick Perry for carrying through on his threat to veto a bill — amounts to an attempted coup d’état, representing a dire threat to representative democracy. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton currently faces such a politically motivated gauntlet, with the obvious goal of removing him from the post to which he was elected in 2014 (or, lacking that, damaging his prospects for higher office).”

Why shouldn’t Democrats do this, since it often works and can swing a seat (see, e.g., the disgraceful Ted Stevens prosecution) and there are few if any consequences. And it’s not as if the GOP returns the favor.

HAVE THEY BEEN READING GLENN REYNOLDS? New bill could finally get rid of paperless voting machines.

Computer scientists have been warning for more than a decade that these machines are vulnerable to hacking and can’t be meaningfully audited. States have begun moving away from paperless systems, but budget constraints have forced some to continue relying on insecure paperless equipment. The Secure Elections Act would give states grants specifically earmarked for replacing these systems with more secure systems that use voter-verified paper ballots.

The legislation’s second big idea is to encourage states to perform routine post-election audits based on modern statistical techniques. Many states today only conduct recounts in the event of very close election outcomes. And these recounts involve counting a fixed percentage of ballots. That often leads to either counting way too many ballots (wasting taxpayer money) or too few (failing to fully verify the election outcome).

The Lankford bill would encourage states to adopt more statistically sophisticated procedures to count as many ballots as needed to verify an election result was correct—and no more.

We talked to two election security experts who praised the legislation and urged Congress to pass it quickly.

All is proceeding exactly as Glenn has foreseen.

THE SMUG, SELF-RIGHTEOUS SANCTIMONY COMING FROM TRUMP’S CRITICS IS TRUMP’S BIGGEST TOOL: Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein decry media’s ‘smugness’ and ‘self-righteousness’ toward Trump.

Veteran journalists Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein hit the news media Sunday for adopting an unnecessarily hostile “tone” in their coverage of the White House.

Appearing Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union,” the two longtime reporters said there should be less pettiness and outrage in the media when it comes to President Trump. . . .

“The tone is a big issue here,” added Woodward. “In lots of reporting, particularly on television commentary, there’s a kind of self-righteousness and smugness and people kind of ridiculing the president. When we reported on Nixon, it was obviously a very different era but we did not adopt a tone of ridicule. The tone was, what are the facts?”

The Educated Class’s emphasis on intra-class virtue signaling — which is what all this smugness and ridicule is about — undermines every institution it controls. And it lacks the self-awareness and self-control to do anything about that.

CHATTERING CLASS: OMG DID YOU SEE WHAT TRUMP JUST TWEETED?!!! WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!! WHY CAN’T HE BE A STATESMAN LIKE RONALD REAGAN?!!!??

Actual Ronald Reagan:

Meanwhile, weirdly, Trump’s tough talk — er, tweet — is producing exactly the opposite result the critics expect: North Korea calls hotline to South Korea in diplomatic breakthrough.

Kinda like with Reagan’s tough talk. Go figure.