Archive for 2017

QUESTION ASKED: Why Isn’t The Laptop Ban Unconstitutional Like The Travel Ban?

Perhaps because al Qaeda may be working on turning laptop batteries into bombs:

Reuters reported Monday that the move had been under consideration since the U.S. government learned of a threat several weeks ago.

U.S. officials have told Reuters the information gleaned from a U.S. commando raid in January in Yemen that targeted al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula included bombmaking techniques.

Or maybe it just depends on which judge on the 9th Circuit hears the inevitable lawsuit.

PAUL MIRENGOFF: Did Obama collude with Russia in 2012? “If one applies the same sort of conspiracy thinking being used to claim that Donald Trump colluded with Russia, one can make out a case that Barack Obama colluded in 2012.”

MONASTERIES OF THE MIND: AMERICANS RETREAT WHEN THERE’S NO ESCAPING POLITICS, Victor Davis Hanson writes: “More and more Americans today are becoming Stoic dropouts. They are not illiberal, and certainly not reactionaries, racists, xenophobes, or homophobes. They’re simply exhausted by our frenzied culture. More and more Americans don’t like lectures from the privileged and the wealthy on the pitfalls of privilege and wealth. They don’t like lectures from the privileged and the wealthy on the pitfalls of privilege and wealth. In response, they don’t hike out to monasteries, fall into fetal positions, or write Meditations. Instead, they have checked out mentally from American popular entertainment, sports, and the progressive cultural project in general.”

Read the whole thing.

USING BOARD WAR GAMES FOR TRAINING: This Popular Mechanics article focuses on a CIA analyst who uses games to train. Glad he’s doing it.

Training for any job, let alone one involved in security, is crucial. The prospect of having to go through it, though, is enough to make your eyes glaze over. Which is why the CIA brought a new element to their internal training exercises: board games.

The article is good –except using games for this purpose is not new. Board games have been used like this for decades. It may not have been official policy, but I know U.S. intelligence community analysts used board games for this purpose in the 1970s and 1980s. The military used them. Firefight is an example. The game was published in 1976. StrategyPage editor Jim Dunnigan designed it for the U.S. Army. In 2001 a lieutenant-colonel in CENTCOM’s J-5 told me his section was using my Arabian Nightmare: Kuwait War game for training purposes. He said that game’s “Political” module was particularly valuable for generating challenging scenarios. (The commentary at the link refers to the “Political rules.” The Political Game could radically re-shape the military campaign. In fact, Saddam could win the Political Game.)

UPDATE: Of course war games are not new. Soldiers have run map exercises since the invention of maps. In the mid-1980s an archivist at the old U.S. Army historical center at Carlisle Barracks, PA, showed me a “war gaming kit” put together by a U.S. Army officer in the 1850s. If I recall correctly, the wooden box had a compass, a protractor, a ruler and some small pieces of colored wood to indicate units. The archivist said the officer’s notes showed he experimented with “what if” scenarios. The center had part of a map the man had used. (I didn’t see the map or the notes.) The kit and documents were kept in a store room and someone “would get to it eventually.”

ALICE STEWART: Plug the leaks and stop blaming Russians for Clinton’s loss.

In terms of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, Comey confirmed this is under investigation by the FBI. He went on to say the Russian officials meant to hurt democracy and Hillary Clinton, all the while helping Donald Trump. Comey also confirmed that FBI officials are investigating possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian officials.

So far, there is no publicly available evidence to support the claim. In my view, Russian interference and possible collusion with the Trump campaign had nothing to do with the Democrat’s defeat; Hillary Clinton lost because she had the wrong message, failed to compete in key battleground states and spiked the football in the third quarter.

Indeed. But although it harms the country, blaming the Russians and discrediting Trump helps Democrats politically — so expect it to continue.

On the other hand, I just spotted this headline: “Tillerson plans to skip NATO meeting, visit Russia in April.”

Snubbing NATO could mean nothing more than sending Berlin another signal to get serious about their defense budget. And until we see an actual policy shift in favor of Russia, that’s probably the smart take.

RICHARD FERNANDEZ: Putin Is Bust, So Who Won The Pot?

If Putin is the world’s puppet master he’s not doing very well. Russia’s economy has been in crisis since 2014, with no end in sight. The Kremlin has been in the doldrums for two reasons: the continued decline in oil prices and economic sanctions imposed on Moscow for its incursions into Ukraine.

Trends have worsened rather than gotten better. Initial hopes the Trump administration would cut Russia some slack were dashed. “Enormous amounts of money have flowed in and out of Russia over the past several months as oil prices and U.S. policies turned from favorable to seemingly unfavorable”. . . .

Russia is facing a tough Nikki Haley in the UN, something that has left the New York Times baffled. ” In recent weeks, Ms. Haley has condemned what she called Russia’s “aggressive actions” in eastern Ukraine, vowed to maintain sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and, in her Senate confirmation hearing, went as far as saying that Russia was guilty of war crimes in Syria.” . . .

But the rhetoric is matched by actions on the ground. US troops arrived in Syria to support the impending assault on Raqqa. After an extended retreat before the Kremlin in the Middle East America is re-asserting itself again.

Worse the administration has been exhorting its European allies to spend more money on NATO. Though Trump’s urgings were mocked by politicians who point out the Euros spend on “UN peacekeeping missions, into our European missions and into our contribution to the fight against IS terrorism” it nevertheless amounts to a call to arm against Russia.

It is reasonable to suppose that puppetmaster Putin would prefer 1) less US oil production; 2) lower American defense spending; 3) a free hand in Syria; 4) lifting of sanctions but there is precious little evidence he is getting any of it. On the contrary Putin is doomed if current trends continue.

If Putin robbed the bank where’s the money? The problem with the Russian hacking stories now roiling Washington is demonstrating how any of it worked to the Kremlin’s advantage. A proper conspiracy theory involving a foreign power in the last election should at least consider China, not just Russia, as a suspect. The Chinese at least would have benefited from cheap oil. Yet even here there are problems.

But without conspiracy theories, Democrats would have to face reality, and that’s still too painful. Alternatively (or additionally) it may be that all this Russia-talk is there to distract from actual foreign-government influence in DC, as Fernandez suggests. But from whom?

IT COULDN’T HAPPEN TO A NICER BUNCH OF DESPOTS: Opec and Russia risk a lost decade as shale revolution spreads.

Russia and the OPEC nations have had every opportunity to reform their economies, financed by riches located right under their feet. Now they find those riches are no longer worth so much, and their other industries are as moribund as ever.

They chose… poorly.

SINAI’S DISPLACED COPTIC CHRISTIANS: In January and February Islamic State fighters and their allies launched attacks on the Christians living in Egypt’s Sinai.

Hundreds of Christian families escaped the city of el-Arish Feb. 24 after the Islamic State (IS) and its branch in Egypt, Wilayat Sinai, increased attacks on Copts there. It is believed to be the largest wave of collective displacement in Egypt since the June 1967 war. Coptic families have discretely been experiencing displacement since the Egyptian government declared a war on terrorism in July 2013, but Cairo and the media have taken an interest in this latest wave because it involves collective migration. No official census figures are available on the Coptic population in the Sinai.

Read the entire report.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH RESUMES: But not enough to stop budget cuts.

That means large cuts in government spending, including a defense budget that is now 25 percent smaller…That also means the replacement of worn out or obsolete Cold War era equipment will take a lot longer and upgrades to or expansion of the military will be restricted. The government has already announced sharp reductions in orders for new armored vehicles, ships and aircraft. Instead thousands of tanks and aircraft will undergo extensive (and much cheaper) upgrades.

Good news for Russia’s neighbors.

THE PRICE OF BEING THE MINORITY PARTY: Dems Still Smarting Over Garland Snub on Gorsuch’s First Hearing Day.

During the opening day of Gorsuch’s confirmation hearing, Democrats consistently noted the GOP’s refusal to provide Garland due consideration. While several expressed their intent to keep an open mind regarding the Gorsuch nomination, several cast a shadow over his prospects because of the handling of Garland, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., nominated by then-President Obama to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia.

The Scalia seat has been vacant for more than 13 months as a result of the Garland snub. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), the former committee chairman, said the “unprecedented obstruction” by Republicans of the Garland nomination “is one of the greatest stains on the 200-year history of this committee.”

“This was an extraordinary blockade and one backed by then-candidate Donald Trump,” Leahy said. “Committee Republicans met behind closed doors and declared that they would surrender the independence of this committee to do the majority leader’s bidding, and they ignored the Constitution in the process.”

If Senate Democrats need a reminder about what it means to be the minority, perhaps employing the Reid Option would do the trick.

UPDATE: Commenter Jukin writes, “If the donks are pissed at the republicans using the ‘Biden Rule’ they will absolutely livid when the republicans use the ‘Reid Rule.’

“Leftists hate, more than usual, when we use their tactics against them.”

Punch back twice as hard, the wise man once said.

HMM:

Club for Growth is one of those conservative groups which helps conservatives pass conservative legislation, so take that as you will.

AND YET, ENVIRONMENTALISTS OPPOSE IT: Thanks to Shale, America Is the Global Green Leader.

Global greenhouse gas emissions stalled for the third year in a row in 2016, and environmentalists the world over are going to have to swallow their pride and give credit where credit is due: to the American shale revolution. . . .

U.S. emissions dropped 3 percent last year, and that fall helped to stabilize the global number of emissions, even as the global economy grew. The IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, acknowledged natural gas as the first driver behind this new trend, because plentiful and cheap natural gas is displacing coal around the world, and emitting only half as much carbon in the process. . . .

Europe, led by Germany, has been gripped by green mania in recent years, but has precious little to show for its efforts—Germany’s own emissions actually rose last year.

But here in the United States, the innovative combination of different technologies (hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well drilling) has set off an oil and gas boom that is both boosting the American economy and keeping our greenhouse gas emissions down. So while Berlin busies itself shutting down nuclear reactors and propping up expensive renewables with lavish government subsidies, Washington is actually doing the heavy lifting necessary to keep global emissions from rising.

Actually, Washington has mostly stayed out of the way. Also, are “greens” getting money from Putin and the Saudis to oppose fracking? I think we need an investigation. Because of the seriousness of the charge.

LE PEN IS NOT MIGHTIER AFTER ALL: Macron on Top After First Presidential Debate of French Race.

Emmanuel Macron, a 39-year-old running for office for the first time, parried attacks from both ends of the political spectrum as he navigated questions on the economy, terrorism and immigration.

Voters are still getting to know Macron who’s been in the public eye for less than three years, so the stakes were high in front of a television audience of almost 10 million. Two snap polls judged the rookie candidate, who has the backing of no established party, the most convincing and markets rose as he stopped the National Front’s Marine Le Pen from landing a knock-out punch.

“Macron managed quite well,” said Bruno Cautres, a political scientist at SciencesPo in Paris. “The challenge for him was to show that he wasn’t just the new and inexperienced one, to show he has the depth and the skills.”

The euro strengthened against most of its major peers after the debate.

Then again, this is a bad time to be making predictions about politics.