Archive for 2017

BLESS THEIR HEARTS: Media mourning for America on Independence Day.

As Jonathan Last noted in a brilliant juxtaposition of DNC-MSM op-ed columns from both November of 2008 and shortly before the GOP took Congress in November 2010 called “Paradise Lost — America was great, once (in November 2008):”

The American people are in for it. When Republicans lose elections, they blame each other: Talk radio blames the RINOs; the squishes blame the pro-lifers; the social conservatives blame the Big Business types, and so on. Each faction maintains that their party will never find acceptance with voters until the rest of the movement looks just like them.

When Democrats lose, on the other hand, they blame America. They tut-tut about gullible voters being way-laid by crafty messaging. Or rubes foolishly voting against their self-interest. Or middle Americans being a bunch of fundamentalist crazies. (Remember the “Jesusland” map after 2004?) With a Republican wave about to wash over the Obama administration, the public is due for a good talking-to. On the nation’s op-ed pages, it’s already started.

And will continue right around this time for the next four to eight years.

(Classical reference in headline.)

NORTH KOREA MISSILE UPDATE: This morning at 8:18 AM Eastern Daylight I posted on the latest North Korean missile test. Based on those reports it was highly likely North Korea had test-fired a ballistic missile with ICBM characteristics. NBC reports U.S. PACOM initially thought the missile was an IRBM (inter-mediate range ballistic missile), so there may be some room for doubt. But if the missile was not an ICBM in the strictest definition, it is certainly an IRBM with extended reach.

Reuters is now reporting experts it has contacted say the test shot means Alaska is within range. The fact is, parts of Alaska (western Aleutians) have been within range of North Korean missiles for several years. So has Guam. This missile test indicates Anchorage and Fairbanks are within range.

From the Reuters report:

David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said the flight time and distance suggested the missile could travel about 6,700 km (4,163 miles), bringing all of Alaska into range.

4,200 miles gets very close to Oahu and Pearl Harbor.

I have no first hand data, but given the development program that accelerated in 2011, I think Wright’s estimate is very reasonable. However, I doubt this test demonstrated the missile’s maximum range. I’ve followed the North Korean program as closely as possible. I spent four years as a reservist in the J-3 Operations section of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization. Like the wiki says, BMDO was the original name of the office guiding the U.S. missile defense effort. The Clinton Administration brought it back in 1993 because it didn’t like Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), the name the Reagan Administration used. BMDO is now MDA, Missile Defense Agency.

Reuters says other analysts think the missile has a range of 8,000 km (4,970 miles) and quotes one South Korean by name. Check the map. In that case Pyongyang starts getting in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest.

So the NorKs have a booster that has ICBM range. It doesn’t mean they can handle operational targeting, doesn’t mean they can mount an operational nuclear warhead on the missile, it doesn’t mean they have a warhead that can re-enter the atmosphere without breaking apart, and it doesn’t mean they can detonate a warhead that does reach the target area. But they are working on it.

It’s also worth noting that the vehicle transporting the missile was a modified Chinese truck built to haul timber. North Korea took a civilian vehicle and turned it into a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). That sends a message about the limits of sanctions when a regime is intent on acquiring ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.

The test in February of a solid fuel IRBM featured a launch from a tracked TEL.

RELATED: Here are some photos of the anti-missile missiles in the U.S. inventory.

The Patriot PAC-3 is for short-range defense. This photo dates from 2014.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) has a much longer range. THAAD batteries are now deplyed in Guam and South Korea.

The USN has several Standard Missiles with anti-missile capabilities. Here’s a Standard Missile 3 (SM-3).

The Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) is the long range interceptor employed in the Ground-based Mid-course Defense (GMD) system.

THIS IS INTERESTING, AND SOME OF MY TRANSHUMANIST FRIENDS ARE ALREADY TAKING IT: Forget the Blood of Teens. This Pill Promises to Extend Life for a Nickel a Pop. “The drug in question, metformin, costs about five cents a pill.” Some of them are taking rapamycin. Others are taking cabergoline, though that’s more about adding life to your years. I regard all of these as not sufficiently proved-out (in terms of safety) to try myself.

“TRANSITIONING” IS WONDERFUL AND AN EXERCISE OF INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM, but “detransitioning” is evil apostasy. You know, kinda like you can convert to Islam, but if you convert from it you get beheaded.

OK REUTERS, TRY WRITING THIS HEADLINE ABOUT ANY OTHER NATION: “Americans celebrate July 4 with leisure and gluttony.”

(Link safe; goes to Twitchy.)

UPDATE: Geez, doesn’t Reuters know that one man’s leisure and gluttony is another man’s exuberant pause from hard work while reflecting upon his nation’s bitterly-won freedom? Where’s Stephen Jukes when you need him?

THERE CERTAINLY ARE: Former Provost: There are lessons to learn from the meltdown at Evergreen College. “The lesson to other schools should be obvious: Treat the left-wing mob as you would any other group screaming at professors and administrators. Expect them to behave themselves, just as you would any other group of adult students. And when they cross the line, punish them for it. All it takes to avoid Evergreen’s fate is leadership willing to show a little backbone.”

MICHAEL WALSH: Austrian Troops at the Brenner Pass?

The Italians, who essentially provide free ferry and naval escort service for any Libyan who steps a toe into the waters off Tripoli or Tobruk, are finally threatening to close their ports and impound the so-called “rescue” agencies’ ships. Rescue from what is the question nobody ever asks, of course, because they don’t want to know the answer.

Read the whole thing.

COMPARATIVE SHOPPING: Home Depot vs. Lowe’s. Everybody has good and bad managers, of course, but nowadays a bad one can really get you a lot of bad publicity.

THUAN LE ELSTON: It Took Two Wars To Make Me An American.

I’m tired of people assuming that I opposed the Vietnam War. My parents were born in the north, and when an international summit divided the country into communist North Vietnam and non-communist South Vietnam in 1954, their families were among a million who left all they owned to flee south away from Ho Chi Minh’s troops — troops whom my dad once had idolized as nationalist boy and girl scouts. Scouts honor no more. Escaping to America in ’75 was the second time my parents sacrificed the past to save their future. Second. Anything but communism.

Yes, the South Vietnamese government was corrupt, inept and repressive. But just because our country’s leaders betrayed and disgraced us, did we the people deserve to be abandoned after Washington’s politicians and policies failed to live up to America’s ideals and “exceptionalism”?

No, but it was essential to the Narrative.

PERFECT:

It’s not you, it’s us.

HOW ZILLOW BECAME AN INTERNET VILLAIN:

I’ve now been writing for the web for 16 years, and yet, I am still capable of wonder at the vast opportunities this technology offers to make a fool of yourself. In the old days, fools were made on a local, artisanal basis, strictly for the entertainment of the neighbors. Now, thanks to the miracle of electronic communications, with a few keystrokes, we can become fools to the world.

Take Zillow, for example. The real estate site noticed that McMansion Hell, a blog specializing in acerbic architectural commentary on modern developments, seemed to be using some Zillow images. Zillow didn’t like this; Zillow makes money by helping agents sell houses, not helping bloggers make fun of them. So Zillow sent a cease-and-desist letter to Kate Wagner, who runs the site, ordering her to take down the photos.

Wagner took the site down. She also took to Twitter to beg for help. In short order, she had a lawyer from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, and also, a wave of social media outrage at her plight. That wave crashed over Zillow, whose apologists had to shamefacedly explain that they had not intended to force her to shutter McMansion Hell.

Now I am not a lawyer. But people who are lawyers specializing in First Amendment jurisprudence seem to think that Zillow hasn’t a legal leg to stand on. While copyright does prevent people from simply reprinting images or words that another person has created, there are exceptions for “fair use,” including for the purposes of parody or commentary. Fair use is not an unlimited right to copy, but it seems pretty clear that making fun of the houses on Zillow falls within those limitations.

But even if the law had been behind them, Zillow would have been wise to refrain. That’s because the internet creates something known as the “Streisand Effect.” In 2003, Barbra Streisand attempted to suppress publication of photographs of her Malibu beach home. Prior to this ill-fated effort to disappear them, almost no one had been aware that these photographs existed. Afterwards, everyone knew — and looked.

McMansion Hell was certainly a popular site. I myself have spent some happy hours marveling at the things people will do to their homes, when they are given more money than sense. But it’s safe to say that many thousands of people who had previously been unaware of its existence are now going to view those images. They are also going to view Zillow as a nasty, mean-spirited company that attempted to crush a smaller website that committed no crime, and gave many of us a much-needed laugh.

Maybe I should open a consulting business, where companies thinking of going after people can ask for advice. The thing is, the people who thought to ask for advice probably wouldn’t be the people who need the advice. But hey, I’m available on an ad-hoc basis, for a suitable fee.

FIZZLE: Long March 5 Failure Casts Doubt On Chinese Space Schedule.

The unexplained launch failure on July 2 has also ruined an attempt at testing an important new spacecraft bus while also putting an end to the quantum-technology communications satellite based on that bus.

Long March 5s, China’s largest rockets, are supposed to launch the Chang’e 5 lunar probe this year and the first module of China’s planned space station next year; the timing of both missions cannot now be assured. Furthermore, two other new Chinese launchers plus another soon to enter development share much technology with the Long March 5, notably engine components, raising the possibility that the launch failure has implications for them.

China’s chief space-launcher builder, Calt, developed the Long March 5 and builds it at its new industrial base at Tianjin in northern China.

The Long March 5 that failed seemed to ascend normally from its pad at the Wechang launch base on the tropical island Hainan. But on the same day Xinhua news agency, the government’s main mouthpiece, issued a terse statement: “An abnormality occurred during the flight of the rocket. The mission has failed. Experts will analyze the cause of the fault.” The English version of the report said an abnormality had been “detected” in the flight.

The payload of the failed mission was the Shijian 18 geostationary satellite, built on the DFH-5 bus, which was to go into orbit for the first time. Exploiting the capacity of the big new bus, Shijian 18 had a weight of 7 metric tons. Apart from quantum communications technology, it featured a new type of Hall-effect electric thruster.

China had a lot riding on that flight.