Archive for 2016

FIVE THIRTY EIGHT: Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground.

In recent elections, more and more voters have been choosing candidates from the same party for president and Senate. That trend appeared to be holding true this year too, even with Donald Trump, unusual as he is, on the ballot. So as Hillary Clinton jumped out to a bigger lead in the polls starting after the first presidential debate in late September, we might have expected Democratic Senate candidates to poll better as well. That hasn’t happened — the chance of Democrats controlling the Senate is only 54 percent in our polls-only model and 56 percent in our polls-plus model.

Indeed, the races for Senate control and the White House have split.

Ann Althouse comments: “It makes perfect sense to me. The more clear it seems that Clinton will win, the more important it becomes to those who worry about her that she should be offset and balanced by a Republican-led Congress. It seems really risky to empower a President Trump with a same-party Congress, but once he’s not a threat, the risk-averse among us should gravitate toward a Republican Congress to put a brake on President Clinton.”

True, though honestly a GOP Congress isn’t really “same party” regarding Trump the way a Democratic Congress would be for Hillary. Too many anti-Trump types among mainstream Republicans.

IN THE EMAIL, FROM MARINA FONTAINE: The Product.

SCOTT ADAMS:

If the latest groping/kissing allegations against Trump hold up – and I assume they will, based on quantity if not credibility – it won’t matter what Wikileaks says about Clinton. She will win easily. . . .

Anyway, getting to the point of this post, if Clinton wins, it will be because women voted for her in landslide proportions while men (on average) preferred Trump. And that means two things of historic importance.

1. We will elect the first woman to be President of the United States. That’s good for everyone.

and…

2. Everything that goes wrong with the country from this point forward is women’s fault.

I feel some relief about that. The next four years are likely to be some of the worst in our country’s history.

Well, that’s cheerful.

MY COLLEAGUE PENNY JO WHITE on skills education at the University of Tennessee College of Law:

I had received a message from a judge asking me to take a look at a book he had written, which he described as “premised upon the fact that law school teaches nothing about how to try a case.”

“Being as how I direct the oldest continually existing legal clinic in the world, where 85 percent of our students represent clients and go to court before they graduate,” I wrote in my reply, “and direct the Center for Advocacy and Dispute Resolution, which employs more than thirty lawyers and judges who teach our students every conceivable lawyering skill from interviewing and counseling, to voir dire, to closing argument; and teach Evidence, Trial Practice, Pretrial Litigation, and Negotiation, all in a concrete, applied format—ouch! Judge, I doubt I’d be a very objective reader of the book you describe.”

The judge’s premise continued to bother me. I did read some of his book—and I’ll likely read the rest, but one statement in the early paragraphs stuck: “The law student is taught in those three years what the rules are, not how to use them.”

Not so, judge. Maybe in your day and my day, but not anymore. Maybe at your law school, but not at ours.

Yeah, if you want to learn how to try a case, we’ve got that covered.

JIM TREACHER: I Hereby Condemndorse Donald Trump. “Donald Trump is a disgrace to the Republican Party and to the United States of America, and I hope you’ll join me in supporting him on Election Day!”

WHAT CAUSED THE BLACK DEATH, and could it strike again? “The late Russian plague expert, Igor V Domaradskij, who was also the co-designer of the Soviet bioweapons programme known as Biopreparat, told me in 2003 that the only plague strain the Soviets worked with was marmot plague, whose explosive power they well understood.”