Archive for 2016

GRESHAM’S LAW OF SCIENCE: Study warns that science as we know it is evolving into something shoddy and unreliable.

To draw attention to the way good scientists are pressured into publishing bad science (read: sensational and surprising results), researchers in the US developed a computer model to simulate what happens when scientists compete for academic prestige and jobs.

In the model, devised by researchers at the University of California, Merced, all the simulated lab groups they put in these scenarios were honest – they didn’t intentionally cheat or fudge results.

But they received greater rewards if they published ‘novel’ findings – as happens in the real world. They also had to expend greater effort to be rigorous in their methods – which would improve the quality of their research, but lower their academic output.

“The result: Over time, effort decreased to its minimum value, and the rate of false discoveries skyrocketed,” lead researcher Paul Smaldino explains in The Conversation.

And what’s more, the model suggests that the ‘bad’ (if you will) scientists who take shortcuts in relation to the incentives on offer will end up passing on their methods to the next generation of scientists who work in their lab, creating in effect an evolutionary conundrum that the study authors call “the natural selection of bad science”.

It’s not really settled science until you can reduce it to engineering.

THE NEW NORMAL ANEMIA: Fed Trims Interest-Rate, Growth Forecasts.

Lost in the “good news” yesterday that the Fed thinks the economy might finally be strong enough — later this year, of course, after a few delays — to sustain a recovery amidst blustery headwinds of raising the prime interest rate all the way to 0.5%, was this sobering assessment:

In forecasts released as part of the central bank’s interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, officials cut their growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 2.0% in June, and held steady their view for next year at 2.0%. Notably, they lowered their long-run view on the economy’s growth rate to 1.8% from 2%.

Bad luck, I suppose.

IT’S DEJA DUKAKIS ALL OVER AGAIN!

“I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy!”

— Jon Lovitz as Michael Dukakis in Saturday Night Live’s October 8, 1988 parody of the George H.W. Bush-Dukakis debates.

“I can’t believe I’m losing to this idiot!”

—John Kerry, April 2004, as reported by the New York Daily News.

“‘Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?’, you might ask?”

— Hillary Clinton, yesterday. Video of the bloodshot, exhausted-looking Hillary not understanding how to modulate her shrill voice for a microphone at link.

STUDY: Vasectomy Not Tied to Prostate Cancer Risk. If I were a single guy today, I think I might bank some sperm, then get a vasectomy, so as to have full reproductive choice.

THIS DOESN’T SEEM LIKE A “CRISIS” TO ME: STEM Crisis? What About the STS Crisis? “STS programs try to bridge the gap between technological innovation and social outcomes. But many science and engineering students still view these programs as liberal arts havens for athletes and English majors trying to complete their undergraduate science requirements without actually running into any science or engineering. Or they’re seen as time sinks, not something essential and useful.”

QUESTION ASKED: Is Hillary In Danger of Pulling a Dukakis?

Like Dukakis, she not only fancies herself the candidate of careful, deliberate reason, she’s quite pleased with herself for it—a prideful trap. If asked how she would react to killers attacking Americans, Clinton will want to contrast herself with her loose-cannon opponent. She will want to show off her mastery of the policy details. She will want to demonstrate her judicious and scrupulous commitment to the legalistic niceties. She will want to detail her experience in dealing with pressing international problems. And along the technocratic way, she may forget to mention, and fail to convey, that terrorism is heinous.

They’re both terrible at presidential politicking, but Dukakis carried a lot less baggage.

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CLAIM: David Brock is laundering money.

David Brock has 7 non-profits, 3 Super PACs, one 527-committee, one LLC, one joint fundraising committee, and one unregistered solicitor crammed into his office in Washington DC.

Uncovered records expose a constant flow of money between these organizations.

The Bonner Group, his professional solicitor, works off a commission. Every time money gets passed around, Bonner receives a 12.5% cut.

Nonprofits are required to disclose who they give cash grants to.

But they aren’t required to disclose who gave them cash grants.

This weak system of one way verification is being abused by Brock. He’s been cycling money between his organizations for years, and the Bonner Group’s 12.5% commission gets triggered after every pass.

Seems legit.

More:

Say, for example, you donate $1,062,857 to Media Matters for America. This is how David Brock would have used your charitable donation in 2014:

1.Media Matters would receive your $1,062,857 donation

•The Bonner Group would earn a $132,857 commission
•Media Matters would retain $930,000

2. Next, Media Matters would give what’s left of your entire donation, $930,000, to the Franklin Education Forum

•The Bonner Group would ‘earn’ a $116,250 commission
•The Franklin Education Forum would retain $813,750

3. The Franklin Education Forum would then forward the remaining $813,750 to The Franklin Forum

•The Bonner Group would ‘earn’ a $101,718 commission
•The Franklin Forum would retain $712,031

In the end, Brock’s solicitor would have pocketed $350,825, almost a third of your initial donation! That’s a far cry from the advertised 12.5% commission.

As bizarre as that scenario may sound, this is exactly what David Brock did in 2014.

Read the whole thing. But rather than “bizarre,” the scenario sounds more like “business as usual” in Clintonland.

WELL, YEAH: The Clintons Can’t Help Themselves.

While much of the world’s press is focused on the opening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, another glitzy event is also taking place across town: The meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) whose gatherings have always attracted a potent mix of political operators and the rich and famous. Today, former President Bill Clinton will attempt to defend his foundation and the CGI against critics.

But rather than an opportunity to set the record straight on his charitable legacy or to defend his wife’s reputation, the former president’s speech is another in a series of colossal mistakes the Clinton machine has made in recent weeks. With her once solid lead over Donald Trump having vanished because of conflict of interest charges and the email scandal that has trashed her credibility, the last thing Hillary needs right now is the press reporting on the Clinton Foundation. Even worse, by allowing her husband to take a deep dive into issues that cannot help but hurt her no matter what he says, Clinton is demonstrating that neither her campaign nor her spouse is thinking clearly about how to avoid letting the election slip completely out of their control.

Even when it’s about Hillary, it always comes back to Bill.

Always.

The producers of Veep might try pitching a sitcom about the antics of a Bill Clinton-like character returning to the White House as First Gentleman.

Even the title is satirical.

JON GABRIEL: Turning The Tables On Senator Warren.

As one of those Americans, it was cathartic to see a greedy banker get his comeuppance. But a few minutes into the video, I was stunned at Sen. Warren’s hypocrisy. Instead of hauling CEOs before a Senate Banking Committee, I wish citizens could drag politicians to before a Taxpayer Politicians Committee. So I slightly edited the transcript of Warren’s exchange to turn the tables on the high-spending progressive.

Taxpayer: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Sen. Warren, the US Constitution, which you swore to support and defend, says “We the People” are directed to “secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.” So, let’s do that. Washington’s massive years-long scam has resulted in a debt of $19.5 trillion. Senators and Congressmen have said repeatedly: “I am accountable to the voters.” But what have you actually done to hold yourself accountable? Have you resigned as a US Senator?

Warren: The voters — I serve —

Taxpayer: Have you resigned?

Warren: No, I have not.

Taxpayer: Alright. Have you returned one nickel of the millions of dollars that you earned while this scam was going on?

Warren: Well, first of all, this was because of Republican obstructionism and…

Taxpayer: That’s not my question. This is about responsibility. Have you returned one nickel of the millions of dollars that you earned while this scam was going on?

Warren: The voters will take care of that.

Taxpayer: Have you returned one nickel of the money you earned while this scam was going on?

Warren: And the voters will do —

Taxpayer: I will take that as a no, then. Have you called for the firing of a single senior bureaucrat? And by that, I don’t mean some regional manager in the Cleveland office. I’m asking about the people who actually made these spending decisions.

Warren: We’ve made a change in our regional — to lead our regional offices —

Taxpayer: I just said I’m not asking regional managers. I’m not asking about regional offices. I’m asking if you have fired senior officials, the people who actually led us to this $19.5 trillion debt, who oversaw this fraud, or the those who were in charge of making sure that the budgets were balanced.

Warren: Well, Harry Reid —

Taxpayer: Did you fire any of those people?

Warren: No.

Taxpayer: No. OK, so you haven’t resigned, you haven’t returned a single nickel of your personal earnings, you haven’t fired a single senior official. Instead evidently your definition of “secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity” is to push the blame to low-level employees who don’t have the status for a fancy press office to defend themselves. It’s gutless leadership. In your time as a member of the Senate Banking Committee and the Economic Policy Committee, the federal government has been famous for overspending. This debt-driven overspending is one of the main reasons that Washington has become one of the wealthiest cities in the world. In fact, four of the five richest counties in the US surround the Beltway.

Warren: No. “Overspending” is just shorthand for deepening relationships with our constituencies. We only do well —

Taxpayer: Let me stop you right there. You say no? Loudon, Fairfax, Howard, and Arlington counties, all got richer as this scam was going on. I would like to submit them for the record if I may, Mr. Chair. Thank you.

Chair: No objections.

Taxpayer: Thank you, Mr. Chair. When voters saw propped-up economic numbers — they did, while this scam was going on — that was very good for you, personally, wasn’t it, Sen. Warren? Do you know how much your net worth increased while this scam was underway?

Warren: First of all, it was not a scam. And overspending is a way of deepening relationships. When voters…

Taxpayer: We’ve been through this, Sen. Warren. I asked you a very simple question. Do you know how much your net worth went up while this scam was going on?

Warren: It’s…. all of my compensation is on the public record—

Taxpayer: Do you know how much it was?

Warren: It’s all in the public records.

Taxpayer: You’re right. It is all in the public records because I looked it up. While this scam was going on, your net worth grew to an estimated $14.5 million, including your $5 million home, retirement fund, and salaries. Your leader, Sen. Reid, and many other senators are now multimillionaires, despite living on a government salary most of their adult lives.

Heh.

CULTURE OF CORRUPTION: Obama Admin Refuses To Say Whether Clinton Pal Violated Foreign Lobbying Law.

[Sid] Blumenthal appears to have engaged in such activity when on Sept. 3, 2012, he sent a memo to Hillary Clinton on behalf of John Kornblum, an international lobbyist who served as ambassador to Germany during Bill Clinton’s presidency.

As was disclosed in the memo, Kornblum was working for Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Georgian billionaire who was head of the Georgian Dream political party. An ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin, Ivanishvili was challenging Mikheil Saakashvili, a U.S. ally.

Blumenthal told Clinton that the Georgian election “could be a potential hot spot a month before the US election.”

“Kornblum suggests that a politically beleaguered Saakashvili might ratchet up tensions with Russia before the election, drawing Republican attention and creating a cudgel to beat the Obama administration as soft on Russia,” wrote Blumenthal, a former journalist who worked in the Bill Clinton White House.

Putin’s friend Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream Party went on to beat Saakachvili in the October, 2012 election, and Blumenthal was at the time a well-paid, full-time employee of the Clinton Foundation.

TWITTER HAS UNBLOCKED MY ACCOUNT ON CONDITION OF DELETING THE OFFENDING TWEET. But lest I be accused of airbrushing, it’s preserved here. Still planning on quitting Twitter, though, after making a few points. Earlier post is here.

UPDATE: From Nick Gillespie at Reason: In Defense Of InstaPundit’s Glenn Reynolds. “Whatever you think of the tastefulness of his suggestion regarding the protesters in Charlotte, the idea that he is seriously inciting any sort of actual or real threat is risible.”

Related: “Glenn Reynolds is old enough to remember Reginald Denny. (Look it up, kids.)”