Archive for 2016

NATE COHN: How The Obama Coalition Crumbled.

It is entirely possible, as many have argued, that Hillary Clinton would be the president-elect of the United States if the F.B.I. director, James Comey, had not sent a letter to Congress about her emails in the last weeks of the campaign.

But the electoral trends that put Donald J. Trump within striking distance of victory were clear long before Mr. Comey sent his letter. They were clear before WikiLeaks published hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee. They were even clear back in early July, before Mr. Comey excoriated Mrs. Clinton for using a private email server.

It was clear from the start that Mrs. Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition.

At every point of the race, Mr. Trump was doing better among white voters without a college degree than Mitt Romney did in 2012 — by a wide margin. Mrs. Clinton was also not matching Mr. Obama’s support among black voters.

This was the core of the Obama coalition: an alliance between black voters and Northern white voters, from Mr. Obama’s first win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses to his final sprint across the so-called Midwestern Firewall states where he staked his 2012 re-election bid.

In 2016, the Obama coalition crumbled and so did the Midwestern Firewall.

Obama won because of the support of a bunch of voters that he treated with contempt, and they finally noticed.

OBAMA’S LEGACY: WaPo: Governors Lead a Republican Renaissance in New England. “Republican governors will lead Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Maine next month – a remarkable feat considering how much the GOP has struggled in New England for more than a generation.”

JOHN HINDERAKER: Desperately Seeking Islamophobia.

There are four lines on the graph: African-American, Sexual Orientation, Islamic/Muslim and Other. Remarkably, the number of hate crimes against Muslims is the lowest on the chart, despite having “risen sharply” to a grand total of nine through October 24.

The largest number of reported hate crimes–30–is against the “other” group. Therein, perhaps, lies a story. “Other” includes White, Arab, Jewish, Asian and Hispanic/Latino. Nationally, according to FBI data, there are around four times as many hate crimes against Jews as against Muslims. What is the ratio in Minnesota? The Star Tribune must know, since it says, later in the article, that the “other” category includes eight hate crimes against Arabs (a new category added last year). That leaves 22–more than double the number alleged against Muslims–unaccounted for. Is anti-Semitism a bigger problem in Minnesota than anti-Muslim sentiment? I suspect so.

The Star Tribune quotes the far-left Southern Poverty Law Center, itself a hate group, as though it were an authority on the subject.

The SPLC is awful. Back in 1995, right after the Oklahoma City Bombing, I was on the PBS Newshour with Morris Dees and had to call him out for lumping all gun owners and government critics together with Timothy McVeigh. It’s gotten worse since.

IS TRUMP BECOMING A CONSERVATIVE? “My guess is that throughout the general election campaign and continuing to the present, Trump has been stunned by the insane outpouring of hatred against him and his family from the Left and the Democratic Party,” posits John Hinderaker at Power Line. “My guess is that he didn’t see it coming. He wasn’t particularly conservative, and had never had anything to do with the social issues, the main locus of left-wing venom. As an urban real estate developer, he had worked collegially with Democrats in various cities. He had been a Democrat for much of his life; heck, he even had been a friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton. He must have been shocked by the hysterical hatred that the Democrats unleashed against him and his wife and children. Trump spends a fair amount of time on Twitter; how do you think he felt when he saw that #RapeMelania was one of the top trending hashtags? One thing we know about Trump is that if you hit him, he will hit back. During the campaign, he didn’t react much to the hatred that was unleashed against him, but I think we are seeing his response now. The liberals wanted war, so war they will get. Trump knows where his friends are–on the right–and it looks like that is where he will govern.”

Read the whole thing.

Related: Teen Vogue writer Lauren Duca tweets and deletes “Eat shit, @realDonaldTrump,” and tweets, “Ivanka Trump is poised to become the most powerful woman in the world. Don’t let her off the hook because she looks like she smells good,” and “Ivanka HAS IT ALL, [and] by that I mean, ‘a job, family [and] sinister complicity in aiding the most aggressively anti-woman candidate of our time,’” before being embarrassed by Tucker Carlson last night.

HEH. Seen on Facebook:

whitesupremacists

FUNDAMENTALLY TRANSFORMED: “What happened today is that the United States joined the jackals at the U.N.” “What happened in the U.N. was Obama showing off his power in the face of Donald Trump? Is that what the NYT means to say? That’s not just pathetic. It’s shocking.” It’s the final period, the election’s over, and the masks are coming off all over the place.

Plus, from the comments: “Now we know, or at least suspect, why the LA Times is hiding the Khalidi video and tapes.”

YES, THAT WAS PART OF THE FOUNDING FATHERS’ INTENT:

Shot: The electoral college is thwarting our ability to battle global warming.

—Headline, Washington Post opinion column, December 19th.

Chaser: Amazon starts flexing muscle in new space: air cargo.

—Headline, Reuters, yesterday.

If you’re writing for the Washington Post, and you believe that global warming is so severe that the electoral college serves as a hindrance because at least half the American public disagrees with your secular religion, getting the paper’s boss to terminate his giant empire would make a pretty good dent in and of itself in reducing America’s carbon footprint. If you can convince Jeff Bezos to go along, then we’ll talk again about the electoral college. (Pro tip: Convincing him to shut down the Post’s giant air-conditioned server farms would be an excellent first step.)

In the meantime, I still don’t want to hear another goddamn word about Glenn Reynolds’ carbon footprint.

HANUKKAH STARTS TODAY. Enjoy!

helehhanukkah