Archive for 2014

A LEAP IN LIFESPAN: “The annual report on mortality rates by the National Center for Health Statistics, released this week, tells a now-familiar story: In 2012, life expectancy for older Americans continued to climb. People who reached age 65 could look ahead to an average additional 19.3 years on the planet, an all-time high. Men could anticipate another 17.9 years, on average, and women another 20.5. The numbers inched up only slightly from 2011 — seniors gained an extra five weeks or so, on average. But the longer-term trend has been dramatic, said Robert Anderson, chief of mortality statistics.” So the gains have slowed in the last few years? What could account for that?

THIS IS EITHER JUST GOOD LUCK, OR IT’S MORE SUBSTANTIVE GOOD NEWS: Dallas Ebola Conundrum: Duncan Family Members and Emergency Room Staff Not Ill.

The onset of Duncan’s symptoms was September 24, which means that it has been 22 days since the folks in the apartment and the emergency room personnel could have been first exposed to the virus. The people from the apartment are currently quarantined and, if they show no symptoms, are expected to be released on Sunday, October 19.

Is there a signficant difference in the infectivity of early stage Ebola patients compared to later stages when symptoms are more severe? If so, this could bode well for the folks whose contacts with Duncan and the ill nurses were early and fleeting. Here’s hoping.

Indeed. And what about Duncan’s ambulance crew? Plus, from the comments: “I hate to say it, but things like this make me wish we had a, wait for it, government agency that could really land on infectious disease outbreaks with expertise and authority. Perhaps a Disease Control Center, something like that?” Yeah, like in the movies.

Plus, it appears that we may need to wait longer, according to WHO: “The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease and is considered by WHO as sufficient to generate confidence in a declaration that an Ebola outbreak has ended. Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.” Of course that means 2% take longer than 42 days. That’s not a lot, but at 1 in 50 it’s not a little, either.

UPDATE: Tom Frieden Admits Officials Don’t Know How Ebola Transmission Occurred. “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Tom Frieden admitted to a House panel on Thursday that officials still don’t know exactly how two nurses contracted Ebola from Thomas Eric Duncan, the first man to be diagnosed with the virus in the U.S.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: Yale student at Connecticut hospital being tested for Ebola. “The patient is one of two Yale University graduate epidemiology students who traveled to Liberia last month to advise the health ministry on using computers to track Ebola, according to Laurence Grotheer, a spokesman for New Haven Mayor Toni Harp. . . . Yale University said the students had not traveled into areas in Liberia where Ebola was present.”

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Yale-New Haven Patient Tests Negative For Ebola.

BECAUSE REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH IS A CERVINE RIGHT: Cornell Gives Deer Tubal Ligations; Everything Goes Wrong. “No, this is not The Onion. This is my world. Deer get tubal ligations at a cost of $1200 per pop, and I can’t even get good coffee in the faculty lounge.”

DO TELL: Lawmakers: Gov’t credibility waning on Ebola.

UPDATE: Noah Rothman: Ebola has revealed that the CDC is a disaster. “The United States is fortunate that Ebola is the first of the major foreign disease outbreaks meriting global warnings over the last 10 years to reach American shores. It is clear that the institutions tasked with keeping Americans safe amid a health crisis are incapable of meeting their expectations. . . . Incompetence and excuse making are fundamental traits which the public has become accustomed to seeing in federal agencies and the bureaucrats who manage them, but first responders addressing an acute crisis are supposed to behave differently.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: Is the White House Behind the CDC’s Travel Ban Stubbornness? CDC Director Frieden Won’t Say. So that’s a yes, then.

SO FAR, THE 21ST CENTURY IS NOT TURNING OUT AS I HAD HOPED: “Holy War” Erupts In Hamburg. “Some analysts believe that rival Muslim groups in Germany are deliberately exploiting the ethnic and religious tensions in the Middle East to stir up trouble on the streets of Europe.”

ASHE SCHOW: ‘Yes means yes’ laws also hurt women. “Studies have shown that men are far less likely to report sexual assault than women, but with a law like this, where the choice could be between seeing their futures ruined by an accusation or coming forward with an accusation — young men would likely choose the latter option. If the law remains as it is written, then women would become just as disadvantaged. If, as opponents predict, the law leads to an increase of accusations, anyone accused — man or woman — would be hurt by the lack of basic due process rights.” Since in our culture, women generally feel privileged to touch men without prior consent, one would actually expect more women to be guilty.