Archive for 2013

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE: “The impulse to impose Sarbanes-Oxley on universities is tempting. . . . It has traditionally has been assumed that universities, as ostensibly charitable organizations, would be run with an eye on the public good, thus formal restraints on self-dealing, conflicts of interest, and rules that apply to private corporations would not be necessary. Today, however, universities are big businesses riven with self-interest. And there is little evidence that charitable purpose plays any role in their behavior.”

The entire nonprofit sector — not just higher-ed — is ripe for much more scrutiny. There’s lots of money sloshing around, and not much accountability.

WAIT, I THOUGHT THEY WERE A BUNCH OF CLUELESS, OUT-OF-TOUCH OLD WHITE GUYS, SQUATTING ON THE DUSTBIN OF HISTORY: Washington Post: How The NRA Is Winning.

There’s little doubt that the inside-the-Beltway crowd and those who have been longtime advocates of more gun control laws are outraged by the brash style that the NRA has adopted following the shootings in Newtown, Conn.

But, there’s also plenty of evidence to suggest that the NRA is regarded entirely differently in the country at large. . . .

The NRA is already in the midst of a membership boom, as the actions taken by Obama — and, in particular, his executive orders — convince people that the threat of the government seizing guns or limiting gun ownership is real and, because it is, a counter-weight to that government is needed. (To be clear: Obama has never said anything that would suggest confiscation of guns is a possibility.)

According to NRA spokesman Andrew Arulanadam, the group has added 250,000 new members since gun control re-emerged in the national debate and added 400,000 more followers to its Facebook page (from 1.6 million to 2 million). Arulanadam wouldn’t disclose any information about the pace of donations to the NRA over that same time period, but it’s hard to imagine that hasn’t heavily increased as well.

The longer the fight on gun rights carries on, the more members — and money — the NRA will add. It’s not unreasonable to think the NRA will add more members (and raise more money) in 2013 than in any year in recent memory.

Well, and after the NYT, and pretty much all the other inside-the-beltway crowd, called the armed-guards-in-schools proposal crazy — the Times called it “delusional, almost deranged” — President Obama came out with . . . a proposal for armed guards in schools. It is no small feat for an out-of-touch, on-the-ropes organization to get the President to basically endorse its signature policy proposal at a time of national debate.

“SMART DIPLOMACY:” Algerian stance spoils U.S. strategy for region. “The result is that the U.S. will have squandered six to eight months of diplomacy for how it wants to deal with Mali.”

WHILE AMERICANS WERE TAKEN HOSTAGE BY THE “DEFEATED” AL QAEDA, Government Focusing on Threat of “Right-Wing” Domestic Terror. “The report’s author is Arie Perliger, who directs the Center’s terrorism studies and teaches social sciences at West Point. I can only imagine what his classes are like as his report manages to lump together every known liberal stereotype about conservatives between its covers.”

WITH LEGAL EDUCATION IN FREE-FALL, WE TURN TO THE IMPORTANT QUESTION: What Does It Mean For Women? “Law schools, of course, don’t give women a tuition break because they are likely to earn less than men in the workplace or to take more years out of the full-time labor force. So as tuition went up (and up), the financial benefits of attending law school diminished more for women than for men.”

Men try harder, because they know that women want men who earn more. Women don’t because they know that men have different priorities, and because they want to quit the rat-race at some point and have kids, making their tolerance for high debt levels rationally lower.

MEGAN MCARDLE: Law School Enrollments Are Plummeting: What Happens Next? “At the Cato Panel, Campos and Tamanaha argued that while lawyers from mid-ranked schools have actually been struggling for years, the last decade has seen a radical collapse in the fortunes of all but the very elite. Enrollments have expanded, and tuition has skyrocketed, even as the profession is contracting. Technology and outsourcing are taking over the most mundane tasks, leaving less work for lawyers. At the same time, they argue that federal student loans have allowed schools to ratchet up tuition. That means that the schools, rather than the graduates, are capturing more of the value of the degree . . . to the point where many schools are capturing more value than the degree actually confers.”

Hence the term, higher education bubble. It’s just hitting law schools first. Plus:

This will have a few knock-on effects worth thinking about. The first thing to consider is that law schools have opened at such a big clip in part because they are cash cows for the schools that operate them. You don’t need a bunch of expensive labs, just some classrooms and some law professors. Yet students pay tuitions much higher than that of other graduate programs. Shrinking or closing law programs will put financial pressure on other departments.

Another thing to think about is what happens to departments like English and Political Science. When I was an English major, law school was the obvious backup plan if you couldn’t get a job–indeed, more than a few kids chose it in order to ensure that they had the best possible GPA for their law school applications. If it becomes clear that this is no longer a sure-fire rescue plan, do kids start rethinking the interesting-but-non-remunerative departments?

I recommend studying welding. Big demand.

UPDATE: Some more hopeful thoughts from reader Robert Gaumont:

The changes are happening, but they might not be as dramatic as you say. They’re subtle.
I am a lawyer. I spent most of my career at one of the largest international law firms. In 2006, as a mid-level associate, I was compensated about 340,000 which is huge for Baltimore and mostly attributable to a six figure bonus for killing myself at work.
I hit the glass ceiling in 2008. They were not promoting, i saw the writing on the wall and I moved into a nice regional firm. I’ve been performing well, but salary has been steady at 240,000 including a bonus that has one less zero on it. I expect to look at 2006 as my peak earning year, maybe for my lifetime or until I have such a significant direct client relationship to justify a higher salary.
Here are the trends as I see it:
1. There is a push to smaller, regional firms. We have the talent to win cases, the horses to staff cases appropriately if things start going sideways, but not much overhead in expensive places.

2. An older gray beard in my office said it’s returning to the way it was. He was meaning the 80s, when lawyers did stuff. Our compensation was tied to production. Hourly rates, yes, but adjustments based on results and a big scrubbing of bills for inefficiencies before they are sent to clients. Hitting this new economy during the beginning of my peak (I’m 13 years out now) is actually pretty refreshing, to be honest. These changes have made our profession better. I wouldn’t have it any other way.

3. You might be overstating the “bubble” in education, although i think your audience is sophisticated enough to grab the nuance. Some people who get four year degrees would be better with two year degrees and, my goodness, people should only go to lawschool if they want to practice law, even with less compensation. Definitely study hard sciences if you can- liberal arts schools are closing all over the place. With the number of professionals who will be retiring in the near future, however, i would still recommend incurring some debt for some college than incurring significant debt for, say, a house. Most homes don’t have mortgages and, as retirees trade down and pass from this world there is no floor to that market. Our banks understand this- the gap between 15 year and 30 year mortgages is very wide despite all the fed easing. Our economy will still reward people who can really think plus you can do that work for longer.

4. Interesting times. This new generation of Americans might end up being as resilient and resourceful as those raised in the 1930s. We’ll see. No one’s ever gotten rich by betting against America.

The decline in legal pay and employment is survivable. However, I don’t think we can charge students 2013 tuition rates when they’re getting 1985 salaries.

SMART DIPLOMACY: Mali joins list of US ‘terror’ boomerangs. “There was a lack of foresight about the blowback in the Sahel from the overthrow of Colonel Muammer Gaddafi in Libya. Hundreds of Malian Tuareg fighters, drafted as mercenaries into his army, went home with heavy weaponry and joined other disaffected Tuaregs to link up with separatists and Islamists in a revolt in January last year. The government’s mishandling of that rebellion sparked the coup that led to the near-disintegration of the army and ultimately today’s crisis.”

SAVE THE ENDANGERED CRAB LICE: Rand Simberg has a White House petition to preserve their endangered habitat.

I love this comment: “Just another case of Brazilian deforestation causing another extinction of a species.”

UPDATE: A reader emails: “Finally. Something they can’t blame on Bush!”

FASTER, PLEASE: US Could Be Top Oil Producer This Year. “The U.S. could become the largest producer of oil this year, seven years earlier than expected, a recently published BP report predicts. In less than 20 years, it will be 99 percent self-sufficient in net energy. We’ve read the tea leaves, and they foretell a new world order.”

Say thanks to Dick Cheney!

THOUGHTS ON DELIGHT AND DISGUST. Don’t click the link if you don’t like pictures of worms.

WHAT REALLY HAPPENS WHEN WOMEN EARN MORE: “Yet the angle of every major outlet to cover the study is that men are retrograde cavemen who must be to blame if their wives earn less than they do. . . . I’ll be blunt. Most women I know would still prefer to pair up with a man who is their professional and financial equal if not superior.”

Related item here. “Why do women want that more than men? Is it merely the social convention that the man needs to bring in money? Is it some sexual need that corresponds to the man’s desire for beauty?”

Is this perhaps connected to women’s preference for men who are taken? Or for men who kill? Are all these manifestations of an urge to hypergamy?

UPDATE: More on women’s high expectations.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Related item here.