MICHAEL BARONE: Redistricting could prolong the Democrats’ pain.

Eighteen months ago it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. . . . But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal.

Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.

This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column.

Well, stay tuned. And don’t get cocky.

THE FUTURE ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE: Virginia Postrel interviews “paleo-future blogger” Matt Novak.

SCOTT SHANE: Why Small Businesses Aren’t Hiring.

ONE DAY ONLY: A Canon Wireless Inkjet Printer for $68.99. In light of the other day’s printer discussion, I thought some folks might be interested.

UPDATE: Reader Rob Turner writes: “I bought this model about a month ago and I has been absolutely great. I’ll probably have my parents order one while it’s on sale.”

But reader Michael Sullivan warns: “One note on the Canon PIXMA MP560 Wireless Inkjet All-In-One Photo Printer you linked. Since Snow Leopard came out, I’ve lost all wireless capabilities of that printer. The Canon tech support stuff says as much if you dig hard enough. I don’t know the specifics of it, but Snow Leopard broke a whole host of older wireless devices.”

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP SLIGHT, but business spending cools. “Demand for durable goods rose 0.3 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The overall increase was driven by a 75.9 percent increase in orders for commercial airplanes. Without the volatile transportation sector, orders dropped 3.8 percent — the steepest decline since January. Businesses spent less on equipment and machines. Orders for capital goods fell 8.0 percent.” Recovery summer!

ARNOLD KLING: Guessing the Trigger Point for a U.S. Debt Crisis. “Leading authorities in the United States, including the Congressional Budget Office, use the term unsustainable to describe the long-term fiscal outlook. . . . This paper explores the possibility of the U.S. experiencing a debt crisis in the medium run, meaning somewhere between 2015 and 2035. It is impossible to state precisely the trigger point for a crisis. At best, we can make guesses about some of the key parameters.”

TEA PARTY CANDIDATE beats Murkowski in Alaska. [Oops — ahead, but not beating so far. Sorry — posted this on my first cup of coffee and misread.]

UPDATE: Tea party, Palin put GOP establishment on the ropes in Florida, Alaska.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Jim Treacher twists the knife.

OH, GOODY: The Renting Alternative Will Undermine The Housing Market For Years. (Via NewsAlert).

THE HILL: Ugly report on existing home sales is latest setback for Democrats. “The continued problems in the housing market are bad news for Democrats, who are already struggling to convince the public their policies are moving the economy in the right direction. With the midterm elections less than three months away, voters say the state of the economy is their top concern, and most surveys show the public is souring on Obama’s handling of the issue.”

LOTS OF PRIMARY NEWS OVER AT the new Battle ’10 blog.

KEVIN WILLIAMSON: Public-Pension Criminals. “When Illinois passed its pension “reform” law a few months ago, it decided it could skip an additional $300 million in pension contributions this year, and many millions more in the future. This, for a pension system that already is less than half funded. The New York Times asked a few actuaries about that decision, and the bean-counters are crying foul. . . . Hey, taxpayer: How’s your retirement fund looking these days? Anything left to put in it after the state-workers’ unions are done with you? Heck, you’re probably the kind of sucker who pays his mortgage with his own money.”

PREDICTION: Obama Won’t Run For A Second Term. On the one hand, he doesn’t seem to be enjoying himself that much. On the other hand, I still can’t see him giving up the White House voluntarily.

HOUSING MARKET stuck in a rut. At best. Plus this: “Most government insurance programs seem to spend most of their time flirting with insolvency.”

MARK TAPSCOTT: Little-known fact: Obama’s failed stimulus program cost more than the Iraq war. Read the whole thing.

POLL: 60% OF IRAQIS DON’T WANT U.S. TO LEAVE. “A majority of Iraqis believe it was the wrong time for a major withdrawal of US combat troops, a poll said on Tuesday, with more than half also warning that it would have negative consequences.”

Well, hell, sixty percent of Americans don’t like most of what Obama’s doing and that’s not stopping him. So good luck, Iraqis . . . .

REMEMBERING leftist terror-bombing at the University of Wisconsin. 40 years ago today. “The blast killed UW research assistant Robert Fassnacht, leaving a wife and three children without their father…. Years of research were destroyed in the blast. Though the bomb was aimed at the Math research Center, it takes up only three floors of the building. The physics department occupied the basement and other offices in the new wing, and the astronomy department used the top floor and roof. The explosion reduced to tiny fragments the carefully ground mirrors in the two telescopes on the roof of Sterling Hall.”

ED MORRISSEY: Obama war on fisheries jobs gets vacation protest.

BULLYING: Politico goes after College Politico — again.

UP TO 30% OFF BACK-TO-COLLEGE KITCHEN ESSENTIALS. Amazon is also courting students with discounted textbooks and free Amazon Prime for students. Smart move, I think, since shopping is harder for many carless campus-bound students.

BEDBUGS: Report: NYC, Philly, Detroit top bedbug list.

READER JOHN STEAKLEY WRITES:

Cash for Clunkers has artificially inflated used car costs, punishing those frugal souls who bargain shop in the used car market.

God, if only someone had warned us about this a year ago!

Yeah, if only.

SKILLS: Do it yourself? Not likely if you’re under 35. More than half are DIY dunces who can’t even rewire a plug and have to rely on parents.

I had something about this a while back.

UPDATE: Various readers don’t think that Brit ineptitude should be extrapolated elsewhere.

IN TANZANIA, albino murders. “Over the last year, more than 40 albinos have been murdered in Tanzania, some as young as six months old. Many more have been attacked with machetes, their limbs cut off while alive. Their body parts are used by witchdoctors in potions and remedies as they are believed to bring wealth and success in business.”

UPDATE: David Kirkham emails:

I just spent a week in Tanzania earlier this month. The country is beautiful; the people are beautiful. I saw quite a bit of the country because we were looking into building affordable, high quality housing there. I saw billboards all across the country urging people to turn in these evil murderers with reminders albinos are human too. The practice is widely reviled in the country. There is a lot of hope for a brighter future as the government is quite determined to stamp this out and lift their people from poverty.

Well, that’s encouraging.

PRESS SPIN: In which “left-wing think tanks are nonpartisan watchdogs, but the free-market ones are part of some covert stealth nefarious plot.”

Plus, from the comments: “So let me get this straight. People can take their own money. And then use it to hire people to do research and to further ideas that the donor believes in. OMG, we clearly need to repeal the 1st Amendment. I mean where do people get off using their own money to promote what they consider to be the truth?”

SHOCKER: Study Finds No Link Tying Disaster Losses to Human-Driven Warming.

The pull of the “front-page thought” and the eagerness of climate campaigners to jog the public have sometimes created a tendency to tie mounting losses from weather-related disasters to human-driven global warming.

But finding a statistically robust link between such disasters and the building human climate influence remains a daunting task. A new analysis of nearly two dozen papers assessing trends in disaster losses in light of climate change finds no convincing link. The author concludes that, so far, the rise in disaster losses is mainly a function of more investments getting in harm’s way as communities in places vulnerable to natural hazards grow.

So when U.N. spokesmen claim the Pakistan floods were caused by “climate change” tell them that the science is settled. Or just start talking about how cold last winter was, which usually reminds them of the difference between weather and climate . . . .