MEGAN MCARDLE: The Sad State of Economic Modeling.

It’s fine to say “Our best guess is that TARP and the stimulus did some good. But it’s well to remember that our best guess really isn’t very good. And putting an exact number on it–“3.1 million jobs created or saved!” creates a dangerous false precision, giving people the illusion that we have good knowledge in a very foggy area.

Indeed, it’s worth reflecting on the fact that the simulation the Fed ran–and a million others run by regulators, bankers, and investors–probably made the bubble, and the resulting crash, much worse. People thought they knew something they didn’t, and it made them complacent.

Indeed.

BESTSELLING AUTHOR SETH GODIN gives up on traditional book-publishing. I’m not sure I’m ready to go that far — Army of Davids was pretty good to me — but I can see his point: “I like the people, but I can’t abide the long wait, the filters, the big push at launch, the nudging to get people to go to a store they don’t usually visit to buy something they don’t usually buy, to get them to pay for an idea in a form that’s hard to spread … I really don’t think the process is worth the effort that it now takes to make it work. I can reach 10 or 50 times as many people electronically.”

A SUNNY LOOK AT our economic future. It’s times like this that I’m happy most forecasts are wrong.

BOB DYLAN EXPERT: Dylan’s Aloofness Toward Obama Is Because of Racism. Yeah, what else could it be?

YOU KNOW YOU’VE MADE IT WHEN John Scalzi shows up to defend you in the comments at Publisher’s Weekly.

ONE NATION AVOIDING WASHINGTON ALTOGETHER?

TEN GREAT NONTRADITIONAL MOVIE VAMPIRES. Though they left out my favorite non-traditional vampire line: Responding to a brandished cross with, “Oy vey, have you got the wrong vampire!”

POLIWOOD: Boomers vs. Gen Y’ers: Who Boasts the More Talented Filmmakers?

POLLUTE AND DIE? “We’ve reached the point in this cycle of humanity to where if you aren’t part of Groupthink, you are to be eliminated.”

HEH: Proof You Can Go Camping In A Porsche Boxster Spyder.

IT’S COME TO THIS: Waste Grease Thefts On The Rise Again. “What is the waste worth? Around $1.90 a gallon, apparently, and those darn ‘grease rustlers’ are, in some cases, making off with 700 gallons at a time. Big producers can lose even more.”

ISN’T THIS PIECE ON SKIRT LENGTH UNCERTAINTY just an excuse to show a lot of leg? (Via Ann Althouse). Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

STEPHEN KRUISER: Remember How Marco Rubio Was Going to Ruin the GOP in Florida (And Everywhere Else)? For all the talk about how Tea Party folks were going to be spoilers, it’s been the establishment hacks — Specter, Murkowski, etc. — who’ve been spoilers. And spoiled.

PROPERTY TAXES: Highest In Blue States, Lowest In Red States.

IN THE MAIL: The Enigma of Capital: and the Crises of Capitalism.

STEM CELL UPDATE: Great news: “Researchers at the Children’s Hospital in Boston have figured out how to produce induced pluripotent human stem cells using skin cells. This is a considerable advance on earlier breakthroughs in which viruses were used to ferry the genes needed to transform adult cells into stem cells.” Ron Bailey adds: “If such IPS cells prove out, one can see the end of using stem cells derived from embryos. It is time for supporters of human embryonic stem cell research like me to acknowledge that opposition probably pushed these breakthroughs along. On the other hand, it is also time for opponents of human embryonic stem cell research to acknowledge that these breakthroughs would most likely have been impossible without earlier work on human embryonic stem cells.”

Hey, I told you so.

HOW TO SAVE CALIFORNIA.

FISHERIES: Iain Murray says the Obama Administration’s right, and the critics are wrong. “Tradeable catch share, or ITQs, the system that is being imposed in New England, seeks to remedy this government-caused problem by introducing genuine ownership stakes in the fisheries. Wherever it has been tried, it has worked to restore collapsed fisheries by making the fishermen responsible stewards of the fish rather than, as Tierney says, hunter-gatherers. . . . Of course, because fishing fleets have been bloated by years of government interference, there will be economic casualties in the course of a move to a more responsible property rights-based system, and the process by which that works out will be seen as anything but fair by the victims.”

CHANGE: Bank of America slows foreclosures as Fannie Mae steps in: Foreclosure crisis turmoil deepens in South Florida, across nation. Related item here.

MICKEY KAUS: Will GM’s Big IPO Actually Happen?

GM is currently planning an IPO designed to allow taxpayers to sell at least some of their 61 percent stake in the bailed-out giant. The IPO is one of the things that lets the Obama administration claim the bailout was an “unambiguous success,” in the words of former auto mini-czar Steven Rattner.

But isn’t it looking increasingly like the IPO is in trouble? I’m not a Wall Street expert, but I can read the papers. The IPO’s already been scaled back, apparently, to the point where taxpayers may not unload enough shares to put them under the 50 percent mark. The global economy is iffy. GM has just abruptly switched CEOs . Its balance sheet is “loaded with fluff,” according to Bloomberg. Its own IPO documents admit its “internal control over financial reporting are currently not effective.” UAW locals are restive. And its market share is now seemingly below the target level. (A percentage point of share is a big deal in the auto industry.)

I smell Kabuki! Here’s the increasingly plausible scenario: The IPO was conveniently scheduled for after the November elections because the White House knew there was a good chance it wouldn’t fly. Now they know that with more certainty. But until November 3, the prospect of the big fall sale allows Obama to portray the bailout as on track, minimizing voter disapproval of one of his most unpopular actions.

Wouldn’t surprise me.

UPDATE: Jim Bennett wonders about a government “pump and dump” operation:

I have been wondering about this for a while. The USG could easily make some moves that would spike GM stock up temporarily, so the administration could dump it on the good news. “It’s not illegal if the President does it”, as another President once said. The really interesting question s whether the UAW would be allowed to dump their stock, giving them a huge war chest they could spend in 2012. Know anything about whether the UAW is free to sell its stock in the IPO?

I don’t. Anybody out there know? But regardless, I believe that there will be fertile fields for various securities-law prosecutions stemming from events of the past couple of years, if any authorities care to pursue them. And perhaps some civil actions, even if they don’t.

CALIFORNIA: University Transparency Bill Vetoed. “Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday vetoed legislation that would have required foundations and other auxiliary groups tied to California’s two main university systems to open their lists of donors to the public . . . . Lawmakers approved the bill, saying it was needed to ensure accountability at California State and the University of California, but Schwarzenegger said the measure, as crafted, would not sufficiently protect the privacy of individual donors.” Of course, if you donate toward a political initiative, you have no privacy and you may have your house or business damaged. . . .

A ROUNDUP OF important news about meat.

THE NEW TEA PARTY CHALLENGE: Staying On Message. Yes, don’t get distracted. As this NPR story suggests, the powers-that-be would like nothing better than to see the Tea Party morph into a social-conservative movement instead of a small-government movement. They can handle the former, but not the latter.

OOPS: Investors Were Heard Making Chimp Sounds And Yelling “Short Ireland” On Disastrous Conference Call With Finance Minister.

ALL TOMORROW’S TEA PARTIES:

I see that former Velvet Underground drummer Moe Tucker was spotted at a Georgia Tea Party protest, telling a local reporter that she is “furious about the way we are being led towards socialism.” Prefix magazine calls this “depressing” news that will “bring you down” before the weekend, because it’s incumbent upon all musicians—especially those in seminal proto-punk bands like VU—to have roughly the same, boring lefty politics.

Heh.