A BIG Father’s Day DVD and Blu-Ray sale.

Plus, Levi’s Jeans with 30% off and free shipping.

THE OBAMA ECONOMY: Unspinnable?

More here. And we might as well run this graphic one more time, though in fact over the coming years the actual deficits are likely to outrun the estimates at current rates.

Related: Tensions grip Obama economic advisers.

A.P.: Lebanon’s pro-Western majority declares victory.

NOEMIE EMERY ON MEDIA DOUBLE STANDARDS.

RAND SIMBERG on blogging pseudonymity / anonymity.

CAYMAN ISLANDS UPDATE: Here’s some news gleaned on my trip this week, on various topics.

Diving: Conditions are good. The West Bay sites are showing signs of over-diving, but the North End sites were terrific — I saw two turtles that were both gigantic — well over four feet, as far as I could tell, and much bigger than I’ve seen before — and there were lots of eagle rays, lobsters, etc. Lots of tarpon, too. Water temps were nice, a consistent 82 degrees. A bit of murkiness, especially on the West side: People attribute that to runoff from the rather widespread construction. (Earlier discussion, for comparison, here. Also here.) Overall, I feel that the Caymans have done a pretty good job of balancing development against the environment, but that lately they seem to have leaned too far in the direction of development and short-term moneymaking. Which brings us to. . .

Economics. It’s the slow season, of course, but by all accounts business is off compared to recent years, and restaurants, bars, etc. all seemed kind of empty. (Waiters/waitresses seemed especially grateful for tips, too). A couple of hotels are actually closed. The level of cruise-ship traffic was the lowest I’ve ever seen. I don’t know how the banking business is going, but the recession has definitely hit the parts of the island economy that you can see.

Interestingly, the Cayman government is trying to reduce dependency on foreign energy. They’re looking at possibly setting up wind-power farms on the East End (least-settled, most windy). Cayman is kind of marginal for wind power, as Cuba blocks the trades to a degree, but with electrical generating costs — using imported natural gas — at 20 cents per kilowatt, it’s probably still viable. They’re looking at solar, too. Power is very important there, since all their water comes from desalination.

A top priority (other than immigration — see below) in the elections last month was getting Cayman off the OECD gray list for “tax havens.” The whole tax-haven kerfuffle is silly (here’s one discussion, and see more here) but the Caymanians are upset about being on the list. Part of this is national pride, but more of it is economics.

Immigration: As I think I’ve noted here before, the Cayman Islands have a rather restrictive immigration policy. Most of their economy is run by immigrants, mostly from the U.S. and Britain, and a lot of Commonwealth countries. (The Islands have a population of just over 50,000 people, only about half of whom are actually Caymanians). The rule is that you can get a work visa for seven years, but that after that, except in rare cases, you have to leave. I’m actually somewhat sympathetic with that — I can see why the Cayman natives feel they could easily be swamped by outsiders in their own country, and why they don’t want a huge class of permanent non-citizen residents, either. On the other hand, it’s pretty hard on a lot of people who come there and settle in, for whom a move is an uprooting. Last months’ elections saw the incumbent People’s Progressive Movement — which had been pretty hardline on immigration — ousted by the United Democratic Party, which is expected to take a softer line. It’s a tough issue. Much of the tourist industry is run by outsiders — you seldom see a native Caymanian in the dive operations or other water sport businesses — and so is most of the banking industry. Between them, they account for most of the Caymans’ GDP. I was told that enough immigrants have become citizens that their votes probably swung the election against the PPM. The Cayman labor market is interesting: Lots of Jamaicans come over to do the jobs Caymanians won’t do at the bottom end (hotel maids, security guards, etc.) while expats come in for the high-end banking, accounting, and legal jobs that Caymanians mostly can’t do, because a country with a native population roughly equivalent to that of Maryville, Tennessee just isn’t going to produce that much top executive talent.

Dolphins: A big issue over the past few years was the opening of dolphin attractions, and now — despite a lot of local opposition — they have two. The dolphins are imported (you don’t generally find them in the waters around Grand Cayman) and are there basically to squeeze money from the cruise-ship crowd. Many locals think that it’s inhumane to keep them in captivity (one facility keeps them in something not much better than a swimming pool) and think that they shouldn’t be a marine attraction when they’re not really native to the waters anyway. Despite a campaign, however, they’re there now.

The Caymans have the highest standard of living in the Caribbean, and they do a pretty good job of running the place. I’ve been going there since 1986 and I’ve always been impressed with them. My own sense, though, is that they’re overdeveloping (especially since Hurricane Ivan, when I think the post-disaster need for cash led to a lot of stuff being permitted all at once) and that a more measured approach over the past few years might have been better.

And to see what it’s all about, check out these photos.

MEN MARRIED TO MUCH YOUNGER WOMEN LIVE LONGER. But it’s likely that older men who still look good enough to attract younger women are just aging better all along . . . .

WELL, GOOD: Hezbollah loses Lebanon elections.

REVIEWING THE CRYSTAL METHOD, live in concert. Never seen ’em live, but I love the Crystal Method, even though loving them is not entirely cool in techno/electronica circles.

TISH TOSH, IT’S JUST A HIGHER FORM OF PATRIOTISM: Disdain for U.S. Policies May Have Led to Alleged Spying for Cuba. “He was a courtly State Department intelligence analyst from a prominent family who loved to sail and peruse the London Review of Books. Occasionally, he would voice frustration with U.S. policies, but to his liberal neighbors in Northwest D.C. it was nothing out of the ordinary. ‘We were all appalled by the Bush years,’ one said.”

MICHAEL SILENCE: ABC News’ clear conflict of interest this morning. “U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is currently being interviewed by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, a former employee of former President Bill Clinton. So far, ABC has not disclosed that conflict. I guess he’s just continuing his role as a spokesman for Clinton. In my world, that would be a firing offense.”

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE THEIR LIMITS: Models’ Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin.

In the waning days of April, as federal officials were declaring a public health emergency and the world seemed gripped by swine flu panic, two rival supercomputer teams made projections about the epidemic that were surprisingly similar — and surprisingly reassuring. By the end of May, they said, there would be only 2,000 to 2,500 cases in the United States.

May’s over. They were a bit off. On May 15, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that there were “upwards of 100,000” cases in the country, even though only 7,415 had been confirmed at that point. . . . What went wrong?

The leaders of both the Northwestern University and Indiana University teams seemed a bit abashed when they were asked that last week.

This is why it’s a bad idea to make policy based on computer models, unless they’ve been proved out by extensive experience.

BUSTING THE ECONOMIC BODY COUNT GAME:

Watching Fox News Sunday, I caught a panel on which Obama economic advisor Austin Goolsbee conceded that the administration had previously predicted unemployment would top out at around 8%, that it was now up to 9.4%, and that double-digit unemployment was a distinct possibility in the near future. Goolsbee didn’t resort to the administrations’s blather about “saving or creating jobs,” but he did repeat its fustian about how last month’s loss of 345,000 jobs (resulting in a half percentage point jump in the jobless rate) is somehow good news because it beat predictions (I don’t recall him sayind whose) of even more dire loss numbers. It made me wonder why, if those predictions either existed or were serious, the Obama administration would have previously predicted that unemployment would top out at 8%?

I’m waiting for the press comparisons with McNamara’s Vietnam number-juggling. . . . .

WELL, GOOD: Tomato Pill “Beats Heart Disease.”

Scientists say a natural supplement made from tomatoes, taken daily, can stave off heart disease and strokes.

The tomato pill contains an active ingredient from the Mediterranean diet – lycopene – that blocks “bad” LDL cholesterol that can clog the arteries.

I’ve written about Lycopene before. But there’s this tip that this may still be a bit overhyped at present: “Experts said more trials were needed to see how effective the treatment is.”

THE TATA NANO: Coming to the U.S. in two years.

LOOKING BACK AT the technology of D-Day.

PRIVATE SPACE INDUSTRY TO THE GOVERNMENT: “Get out of the way!”

UPDATE: A response from Moe Lane.

WELL, IT’S NICE THAT SOMEONE FEELS THAT WAY: 65 years after D-day, Normandy’s gratitude toward US has not faded.

EXTREME MAKEOVER: Federal Reserve Edition. “Talk about your public beautification projects. The Fed’s getting a makeover and image-softening advice from an Enron lobbyist.” Enron was probably more solvent . . . .

THE COUNTRY’S IN THE VERY BEST OF HANDS: Court Docs Reveal Govt. Likely Forced Chrysler Deal With Minimal Knowledge of Fiat. Plus, government lawyers call Tom Lauria a “terrorist.”

MARK STEYN: Obama’s Message Of Weakness.

IN THE MAIL: Where to Put Your Money NOW: How to Make Super-Safe Investments and Secure Your Future.

IS IT WRONG TO “OUT” ANONYMOUS BLOGGERS? I think blogging anonymity is fine — though in the absence of a track record I tend to trust anonymous bloggers less — but is it a “despicable” act to identify an anonymous blogger? I’d say it depends. Certainly the political operative who leaked the Foleygate story via an anonymous blog had no right to anonymity. On the other hand, what about people who blog in a non-hitjob fashion but just want to avoid job repercussions? I’m more sympathetic there. But if you appoint yourself someone’s anonymous blogging nemesis, you can probably expect to be outed.

This whole kerfuffle has a familiar feel, and in fact I remember this 2006 post from Eric Scheie: Outing Closeted Gays Is Good, But Outing Anonymous Bloggers Is Despicable!

UPDATE: Outer Objects To Outing.

ANOTHER UPDATE: More comments from Dan Riehl and Stacy McCain.

MORE: Ed Whelan responds.

Plus, more from Ed Morrissey, Ron Coleman, and Joe Gandelman. Plus, Michael Krauss and Walter Olson.

STILL MORE: Further thoughts at The Mudville Gazette. And Ann Althouse comments, and corrects me in her own comment section — it’s pseudonymous, not anonymous here. Good point. But one of her commenters weighs in:

Why should we feel sorry for him? If I was ever outed, I doubt that any liberals would raise their voices in my defense, except in a perfunctory “say it now so they can’t call me a hypocrite later” kind of way. And by then it would be too late. I would be outed and I would lose my job.

The same liberals who worked to get Prop 8 donors fired are now sobbing, sobbing, heartbroken, because this formerly-pseudonymous cyberbully is now on equal footing with the target of his bizarre obsession.

The same liberals who out closeted gays who have sex in private insist that they have a right to publicly harangue people with complete anonymity.

Lots of other discussion — mostly, but not always, taking the opposite angle — there, too. Meanwhile, Mike Hendrix isn’t shedding a tear. Plus, further thoughts from the formerly pseudonymous Jonathan Adler.

BAILOUT UPDATE: Probe clouds star turn for auto negotiator Rattner:

Back home in New York, Rattner has emerged as a player in an influence peddling scandal involving a giant state pension fund that provides retirement benefits for more than 1 million government employees.

The case has already led to criminal charges against six people, including the retirement system’s former top investment official.

Authorities say Rattner is unlikely to face charges, but the probe has raised unanswered questions. Among them: Did the banker cross an ethical or legal line in the winter of 2004-2005 as he tried to persuade state officials to make a major investment with his private equity firm?

Read the whole thing.

MICKEY KAUS: Detroit’s new “green” delusion. “I could have saved him the 10 years, as could about 85% of the readers of Car and Driver, because it’s obvious why Saturn flopped: The company had built a popular brand as a sort of feel-good anti-car–vaguely tractor-like, noisy, but made of semi-indestructible plastic by dedicated Tennessee workers and–unique in nearly all of GM–actually reliable. GM threw all this away and filled Saturn showrooms with cars designed to appeal to totally different buyers: rebadged mainstream Opels. They were OK, but creepily overstyled and not so reliable. End of explanation. . . . Detroit cars will sell when they’re bulletproof, not when they’re green (or, in Lutz’s new spin, when they’re made by a company that also sells something ‘green’). But only one of the Big Three U.S. car manufacturers has made dramatic progress catching up to Japan on the bulletproof front–and it’s not Chrysler or GM. It’s the one that hasn’t gone broke.”