Archive for November, 2009

IS DUBAI A Financial China Syndrome? Beats me. On the one hand, if rich Arab sheikdoms can go broke, who’s safe? On the other hand, anyone can spend more than they should, and stupidly — and people with lots of money may even be at more risk for that. So does it tell us anything about the state of other sovereign debtors? Doubtful. Will it bring down the system itself? Also doubtful, but who knows?

UPDATE: A hedge-fund reader emails:

Dubai could be bailed out its by its Arab pals in the blink of an eye. This is about WILLINGNESS to pay, not ABILITY to pay.

The public list of Western bank exposures shows some institutions are wounded, but not mortally so.

The big financial enterprise at stake here is the recently created industry known as “Islamic Finance” which purports to create debt instruments consistent with arcane Moslem-friendly rules.

No one knows, or CAN know, how these spanking-new pieces of paper will be honored or valued. And only insiders know who holds the paper, and what process will be used to manage their first crisis.

Given the obvious conspiracy to spring this de facto default on markets before a lengthy Islamic holiday, it’s clear this will be very much an insiders’ game.

A worst case outcome, structurally, would be the collapse of the entire Islamic Finance complex, with unknowable consequences. At the very least we’d be looking at another drain on global liquidity/financing capability, at the margin dampening global growth further and pushing the US recovery further into the future.

Interesting. Well, stay tuned . . . .

A BUNCH OF INTERESTING FOOD LINKS. And a photo of a “bacontastic” Thanksgiving turkey.

TV CALIBRATION: The Easy Route.

WORLD WAR II VETS: This isn’t the Britain we fought for. “As a group, they feel furious at not being able to speak their minds. They see the lack of debate and the damning of dissenters as racists or Little Englanders as deeply upsetting affronts to freedom of speech.”

READER DAN ROHR sends this photo and report from today’s St. Louis Tea Party rally.

A worthwhile event I’d say. About 1500 people, 4 K9s, about 10 speakers. A poem was very well thought out. I’d rate a few of the speakers pretty high:
James O’Keefe – nailed ACORN
Jay Steward – He was the highlight, me thinks.
Some fellow from pre/post Castro Cuba was inspiring.

112809stlouisteaparty

UPDATE: Stephen Green writes:

From that photo on your site, it looks like the event was held at the St. Louis Muny. It’s an amphitheater in a huge natural bowl in Forest Park, and seats more than 10,000. So it really is huge. People sitting in the back rows (where that pic was taken) would have a lousy view. Were people sitting up there just because they wanted to? Or did they have to, and attendance was much higher than the reported 1,500? Can’t tell from the shot, but it’s got me curious.

Here’s the view of the stage from the back row, where that picture was taken.

Muny_Closing_Night

Yes, later reports are saying over 4,000 people. Plenty of crowd shots there, but is it the same venue? Looks similar, but I think it’s a different one . . ..

ANOTHER UPDATE: Christopher Johnson emails: “From what I understand, it was held at Kiener Plaza downtown, a few blocks west of the Gateway Arch. There’s an amphitheater there and various events are held there all the time.”

KOS POLL SHOWS poor morale among Democratic voters, as reflected in low likelihood-of-voting reports. Republicans, on the other hand, are much more likely to say they’ll turn out to vote next time.