Archive for 2008

“DIGNITY PROMOTION” as foreign policy. I guess that would make the U.N. a kind of self-esteem camp — which, come to think of it, makes sense . . . .

schlagheckcov.jpgTax Day is approaching, the markets are turbulent, and people are wondering how to move financially. So we talked with Jim Schlagheck, producer of public TV’s Retirement Revolution and author of The Cash-Rich Retirement: Use the Investing Techniques of the Mega-Wealthy to Secure Your Retirement Future. The book is interesting, action-oriented, and — in my opinion — more conservative and realistic than a lot that I’ve read. Our discussion includes what to do financially, how the housing bubble and the “coming demographic storm” of Baby-Boomer retirements are likely to affect investments, and what economic problems will confront the next President.

You can listen directly — no downloads needed — by going here and clicking on the gray Flash player. You can download the file and listen at your leisure by clicking right here. And you can get a lo-fi version suitable for dialup, cellphones, etc. by going here and selecting the lo-fi option. And of course, you can get a free subscription via iTunes — and it’s free.

Music is by Mobius Dick. Show archives are at GlennandHelenShow.com. As always, comments and discussion are hosted at my lovely and talented cohost’s place.

A SPIRITED DEFENSE OF HILLARY CLINTON: “Hillary told the truth, and all the dishonest hacks and hate-filled liars and Caesarist bootlickers saying otherwise can go hang. . . . Her Story’s Still Changing: But so what, Right Wing Haters? It’s just getting better, more truthful, and more filled with pulse-pounding action-adventure and executive experience with each retelling.” Well, I’m convinced.

BUT I THOUGHT THE COMMUNITY DEMANDED IT: D.C. Gun Crackdown Meets Community Resistance. I guess the D.C. government fears it will lose in Heller and wants one last power-trip before it’s too late. But if the gun-control had worked, why would they need to be confiscating them now?

Plus, more resistance from “the community” in Boston. When you can’t even sell gun control in big urban areas like these, I think it means sentiments have shifted.

CHRISTOPHER HITCHENS DOESN’T LIKE OBAMA:

You often hear it said, of some political or other opportunist, that he would sell his own grandmother if it would suit his interests. But you seldom, if ever, see this notorious transaction actually being performed, which is why I am slightly surprised that Obama got away with it so easily. . . . To have accepted Obama’s smooth apologetics is to have lowered one’s own pre-existing standards for what might constitute a post-racial or a post-racist future. It is to have put that quite sober and realistic hope, meanwhile, into untrustworthy and unscrupulous hands. And it is to have done this, furthermore, in the service of blind faith. Mark my words: This disappointment is only the first of many that are still to come.

Ouch. But read the whole thing.

UPDATE: Reader Steve Fisher notes that Hitchens doesn’t much like Hillary, either. And I’ll bet he’s not crazy about McCain . . . .

JEREMIAH WRIGHT, child of oppression privilege. “In short, Rev. Wright had a comfortable upper-middle class upbringing. It was hardly the scene of poverty and indignity suggested by Senator Obama to explain what he calls Wright’s anger and what I describe as his hatred.” White or black, it’s the ones with the most advantages who turn most anti-American, it sometimes seems.

HOUSING SALES: My earlier post on rising home sales and price cuts produced this email from reader James Meigs:

About those rising home sales:

Like many in the media, the author of the Bloomberg story you linked to seemed a bit mystified about what’s going on here. (“Sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February for the first time in seven months, easing concern credit restrictions and falling prices would hurt demand.” )

Prices have been falling for months, yet some people have strangely decided to start buying houses? Who in the world could possibly explain this bizarre phenomenon?

Heh. Indeed. Meanwhile, reader Robert Talbert emails:

Regarding your article on the housing market and the need to price houses appropriately: Here in Indianapolis, often ranked as the most affordable housing market in the country, I’ve been seeing the same thing you mentioned happening — houses that stay on the market for months or even years, because they are priced ridiculously high, which suddenly sell once the owners acquire a modicum of common sense. For example: We built our house new for $220K two years ago in a suburban subdivision. A newer home up the street from us, with less square footage than ours and with fewer upgrades, was put up for sale a few months ago for $245K. As far as we know, there were no major upgrades to the house that would justify the jacked-up price. Unsurprisingly, it didn’t sell, not because it was competing with cheaper pre-existing homes in the same neighborhood, but mainly because the subdivision is still being built out, and you can build a nicer home with more square footage and more upgrades for $30K less, within 50 yards of that house. (So long as you’re willing to wait 6 months for it to be built.)

I seriously believe the glut of real estate-oriented shows on HGTV and TLC is partially to blame. Those networks run endless programs about young couples who build or buy houses, do a few basic upgrades, and then turn around and sell them for unbelievable profits in just a year or two. I think people watch these shows and truly project themselves into them, believing that anybody can make money off any house, at any time and in any housing market. There have been many times where I’ve seen a house priced way above market value and thought, “That person’s seen one too many episodes of ‘My House is Worth WHAT?’.”

I hate to dis HGTV, which is a Knoxville operation, but yeah. And reader Justin Lipner thinks things are picking up:

After buying a new condo in St Louis in August, I eagerly awaited the sale of the rest of the new units, because until that happened, I couldn’t hope to sell my unit. In the last month following 4 months of nearly no sales, they sold 3 units quickly. Their asking price has not dropped for the remaining units, and it looks like they will have sold the rest of the units in the next couple months.

Anecdotally, I see the American home buyer adjusting to the new reality of prices being constant at least, and moving from one place to another, not expecting a value rise that they should wait for. It’s good news for everyone who doesn’t sell bad news.

We’ll see.

UPDATE: How counterproductive is Realtor Association spin?

MICHELLE MALKIN DISAGREES WITH ME ON VACCINES: “Is there junk science on the anti-vaccine side? Absolutely. But you can’t address this issue without also addressing the problem with physicians who are unwilling to discuss the full risks of vaccines as well as the benefits.” Read the whole thing.

UPDATE: Steven Den Beste emails:

Vaccination refusal is an example of the free rider problem. That’s because of herd immunity. If everyone except Bridget vaccinates their kids, Bridget’s kids benefit from not ever being exposed to the diseases, but they don’t share the (small but nonzero) risk of being vaccinated.

The problem is that like all cases of free riding, too much of it destroys the system. When a large percentage of the population refuses to vaccinate, then herd immunity no longer functions and the diseases return.

And that can negatively affect those who did vaccinate, too, because vaccination doesn’t always work. People who vaccinated their kids, and thus accepted their share of the risk, might still have their kids become sick.

If no one free rides, the failure rate isn’t high enough to be a problem. Herd immunity protects even the kids for whom vaccination failed.

I’m a big fan myself; I’ve gotten lots of non-mandatory vaccinations.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Dr. William Schmidt emails:

I’m an emergency physician. In the past week I treated two kids who weren’t vaccinated at all (2 and 4 years old). The first child’s parents seemed marginally educated and not well-off (living in a trailer park, on an extended vacation). The second child was from California, had very long hair, and his parents seemed like they came right right from the “stuff white people like” blog. They were young, likely very well-educated, wore trendy expensive clothes, and were uncomfortable when I inquired as to his vaccination status. Somewhat amusingly, he had some cold symptoms and they were worried he might be ill because of the lack of previous vaccinations (they were apparently deathly afraid of the pertussis vaccine).

I agree with the criticism of the “free rider” theory. I don’t know anyone in the medical profession personally who disbelieves in vaccinations (unlike claims made on certain websites). And, in response to Michelle Malkin, many pediatricians don’t have time to waste in their very busy day discussing the “risks” of vaccinating one’s children. From personal experience, many parents, especially in the Google age, have just enough knowledge to turn this into a 5-10′ conversation and will often continue to disagree with you afterwards. Ten minutes may not seem like much to the soccer mom who thinks that noted autism researcher Robert Kennedy is infallible, but it is to the pediatrician who would rather spend that time doing something more useful (like seeing another patient).

I’m hearing this kind of thing a lot from my physician readers. And Chuck Simmins emails:

Glenn, as an EMT and highly interested in not dying, I favor vaccination in general. I got the Hep vaccine, for example, since I am exposed to blood borne pathogens. I got the pneumonia vaccine because I had pneumonia shortly before I did it, and pneumonia is the number one killer in a flu epidemic. I got the mumps vaccine because I never had it as a child and I love my parts that could be affected.

The whooping cough vaccine is about 70% effective. Other vaccines also vary in effectiveness.

That said, several years ago we say a world-wide polio outbreak that was traced to Nigeria. Muslim teachers told their people to refuse the vaccine. One or more of them went to Mecca, and suddenly we saw outbreaks throughout the Moslem world including countries that had been polio free for a decade or more.

Parents, like Michelle, in the West do not have two choices, i.e. take the vaccine or risk the illness. By and large the risk of contracting most of the diseases we vaccinate against in the West is non-existent. So, Michelle’s choice is to risk her child having a reaction, a small but clearly definable risk, or to do without. I understand that thought process.

Medical doctors do a lousy job of explaining risks. For the most part, I suspect, it’s because they don’t have a clear understanding themselves. The companies that make and sell vaccines do as little as required. So, Michelle and other parents are trying to do their best in a world where information either comes from kooks or from experts who aren’t really expert.

I have no answers. When asked, I generally point out that there are loads of people we see every day in urban America who may not have the best health because they are poor or immigrants. Unless your child is never around anyone who could have been exposed to a given disease, you should give serious consideration to vaccination. As witness, this post on leprosy and TB in a small community in Arkansas.

Indeed.

MORE: Dr. Kevin Fleming emails:

I am a physician and I very much doubt any connection between autism and vaccines. However.

Medicine is famous for being dogmatic about things that turn out to be wrong later. For example, the “globus” phenomenon, the sensation you have something in your throat, used to be called “globus hystericus” because it was felt to be anxiety or hysteria. Now it’s often thought to be sign of esophageal reflux, to be treated with Prilosec.

Not too long ago, medicine used to believe in frontal lobotomies for the mentally ill. Since I have been in practice, estrogen therapy has been in then out then in then out of favor as a treatment after menopause. But never was there any doubt expressed at the time.

Bruno Bettelheim, the University of Chicago child psychologist favored the now-discredited “refrigerator mother” theory of autism, which blamed autism on mothers who did not want their children to live. Around 1967, he told my mother that she had rejected my autistic older brother “in the womb” and that was why he was autistic. My folks followed his advice and left him on a farm in Illinois. He almost starved to death there. (My dad rescued him as we left the state, but that’s another story).

The point is, medicine is often dogmatic about things which are as yet unproven or unknown. Do vaccines cause autism? Probably not, for there is very little evidence to support that theory of origin. On the other hand, the market speaks, and many consumers are rejecting vaccines. Are they all wrong? Probably, but the perceived relationship may be a clue. Medicine cannot fully reject the theory when there is no real idea what causes autism in the first place. (Prenatal ultrasounds, mercury exposure from eating fish, and genetics are also blamed.) Are answering “almost certainly not” and “there is no evidence” sufficient for parents wishing to avoid a devastating developmental disorder?

My own kids got their vaccines. What would a libertarian do?

In my case, let people do what they want — but shame them a bit for free-riding based on no actual science. Megan McArdle would be . . . a bit less laissez faire. And I still think McCain needs to take back his dumb remarks on the subject. You don’t want to be making health policy based on Don Imus.

STILL MORE: A followup email from Dr. George Milonas:

For all those people who claim they have no risk factors for HPV (Gardasil) which causes cervical cancer or Hepatitis B which causes liver problems (and more), I have had plenty of moms in my office who have told me that their virgin husbands gave them these diseases on their wedding nights. Here’s a truth for all women: men lie, some men lie all the time. It is far better to protect your innocent daughters from preventable diseases than to blindly trust men.

Here are two links that I think are very useful in the vaccine/autism debate. Please note there is little disagreement amongst clinicians or researchers. The debate involves lay people.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15364187?dopt=Abstract

http://practice.aap.org/content.aspx?aid=106

I’ll just note that women have been known to lie about these things too.

AND MORE: Further thoughts from Megan McArdle and Katie Granju.

A BAD REVIEW FOR FRONTLINE, from Jules Crittenden.

ACTUALLY, I JUST ENJOY WASTING THE TIME of people who struggle to read my mind.

UPDATE: Reader James Wink emails:

Interesting logic….if you link to a blog you agree to everything published in it (whether consciously or unconsciously) according to Glenn Greenwald. This is from a guy who links to Daily Kos whose infamous post regarding contractors in Iraq….so I guess Glenn Greenwald is consciously or unconsciously in favor of U.S. citizens being killed in Iraq. Some how I doubt he would agree with the logic….

And since I link to Greenwald, I must agree with it too. I’m a bad American! And don’t even get started on my blogrolling of Oliver Willis . . . .