AN AWARD FOR Scott Nelson’s John Henry book.

A WHILE BACK I warned to look at Obama’s lower-tier appointments, not just the ones that get a lot of attention. 24Ahead is doing just that.

JOHN THOMPSON:

The Mumbai attacks represent a scenario that few Western police and security forces have dared envision. Fewer still have prepared for it.

The basic strategy: use a large number of attackers to overwhelm a target city’s ability to respond, and then suddenly switch focus to high value targets and seize hostages.

Of course, if significant numbers of citizens were armed, the response would be much harder to overwhelm.

UPDATE: Reader Andrew Samet writes:

So you think that ordinary citizens armed with handguns would slow down a surprise attack by trained paramilitary forces armed with automatic weapons, grenades and who knows what else? I’m curious how you see that scenario playing out.

The way I see it, if terrorists such as these could rely on a “significant number” (and I don’t know what that means, exactly – 10 percent? 20 percent?) of their targets carrying guns, they wouldn’t bother taking hostages. They’d just slaughter everyone in sight. They might take a few hits, but they’d have planned for that, just like any army would.

Well, let’s see. There were about 25 terrorists in Mumbai, according to the reports I’ve seen. I’m not sure how many people were at the Taj hotel but it’s a big place. Say it’s 2000 and 10% are armed. That’s 200 vs. 25 (and it’s really better odds than that, since I don’t think there were 25 terrorists at the Taj, but rather 25 overall; these numbers will likely turn out to be wrong, but probably not wrong enough to affect this analysis.) Now the 25 terrorists were practiced at working together, and probably fairly proficient (though I saw an Indian commando saying they were skilled because “most people cannot operate an AK rifle or throw a grenade” which isn’t, by itself, a stirring tribute to their military skills). Nonetheless, 1-8 odds, even with a weapons and training advantage, aren’t great. Would they take hostages? It would probably be a lot harder. Would that prevent raids like this? Maybe not, but if you’re just out to kill people and not take hostages, why not just use a car-bomb? Plus, when your “victims” are shooting back at you and killing you, they’re not really victims any more, are they? Kinda undercuts the whole terrorism game.

Meanwhile, reader D.A. Rodgers emails:

You wrote, after excerpting Thompson:

“Of course, if significant numbers of citizens were armed, the response would be much harder to overwhelm.”

Thus, Texas will be last place to face this kind of terrorism.

Seriously, this reminds me very much of the situation after the Rodney King verdict. In L.A., where no law-abiding citizen (Korean-Americans excepted) carries (or even owns) a gun, the rioters were able to “use a large number of attackers to overwhelm a target city’s ability to respond.” In Houston, attempts were made to start a similar riot in response to the Rodney King verdict. Would-be rioters shot from the freeway into the neighborhoods. The residents shot back.

End result? No riot. Not even one Ranger.

We saw armed Houstonians patrolling their own streets after Hurricane Rita, too. I’ll note that it hasn’t been that long — only a few generations — since people expected to have to resist brigands, etc., in all sorts of situations. Back to the future?

ANOTHER UPDATE: According to Reuters, there were only ten terrorists. That would make the odds 20-1 in favor of the good guys in the hypothetical above, which would seem to be quite a burden for the terrorists to overcome. But Reuters calls them “militants.”

Anyway, people don’t stop killers, people with guns do. Maybe we need a rifle in every pot?

MORE: Reader Peter Sterne writes: ‘Your reader, Andrew Samet, expressed skepticism about an armed citizenry’s ability to successfully fight a trained paramilitary force. I kind of remember something about an armed citizenry successfully taking on a trained military very early in the history of this country … it’s not a perfect analogy with Mumbai, and everyone was much better acquainted with firearms back then, but, you know, I’m just sayin.’”

STILL MORE: Dave Hardy comments: “I really wouldn’t give ten men attacking a few thousand Tucsonans much of a chance. About 2% of Pima County has a CCW permit; others carry openly or have one in their car (you don’t need a permit to have a holstered gun in the glove compartment). So an attack on 2,000 people means an attack on *at least* forty who have a gun on them, and more who will have one available in seconds. A fair number of whom will be behind the attackers’ backs.”

No guarantees on how it turns out, of course — but from the attacker’s point of view, that’s the problem, isn’t it? Because when you attack a bunch of unarmed people, well, the guarantees are a lot closer to hand . . . .

FINALLY: Reader Drew Kelley comments: “It seems a lot of people need to be reminded why the Japanese were very reluctant to launch an invasion of the United States proper. And then, after assimilating that information, they need to refamiliarize themselves with the basics of being a rifleman, and pistol marksmanship. It seems we are surrounded by crocodile feeders.”

MORE ON Rosie O’Donnell’s flop: “Is it that people just don’t like Rosie anymore, that no one wants variety shows anymore, or is it just the combination of Rosie and variety that’s poison? Writing the headline to this post, I typo’d ‘old-fashioned variety sow,’ which seemed like a clue from my not-very-nice subconscious.”

OIL COMPANY ROBOT SHOOTS VIDEO of rare giant squid. “As oil companies and their ROVs spend more time in the bathypelagic zone, more discoveries are sure to follow, experts say. Eager for hard-to-come-by deep-sea video and data, some biologists are formally aligning themselves with the companies.”

A BUNCH OF Black Friday videogame deals.

ED CONE: “He says ‘vehicle for gravy’ like it’s a bad thing.”

THE NEXT PEARL HARBOR? Cyber-attack on Defense Department computers raises concerns. You don’t even have to bring the systems down — just render them untrustworthy. This is getting attention, but not nearly enough.

SOMETHING DIFFERENT: Bill Roggio on the Mumbai attacks. “The Mumbai attack is something different. Foreign assault teams that likely trained and originated from outside the country infiltrated a major city to conduct multiple attacks on carefully chosen targets. The primary weapon was the gunman, not the suicide bomber. The attack itself has paralyzed a city of 18 million. And two days after the attack began, Indian forces are still working to root out the terror teams.” If lots of ordinary people in the hotels had been armed, it probably wouldn’t have worked as well . . . . (Via Jules Crittenden, who has much more).

UPDATE: Some further analysis. “Since the period of suicide terror, terror organizations have upgraded to include paramilitary fighting units, as opposed to singular acts of terror. . . . The events taking place in Mumbai must act as a warning and turning point in the world’s treatment of the local terror armies that base themselves in various parts of the world, and threaten the world’s stability as a whole.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: Related item here.

MORE: Reader Tom Holsinger emails: “This was not an Al Qaeda operation. This was planned and conducted by Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence Agency.” Well, possibly. Stay tuned.

HEH: GM Asks U.S. FAA to Bar Public Tracking of Leased Corporate Jet. I didn’t realize you could do this. Can somebody start tracking the flights of celebrity global-warming activists the same way?

AN ARMY OF SHOPPERS: Letting people vote on what goes on sale.

UPDATE: Link was bad before. Fixed now. Sorry!

GEE, DO YOU THINK? Media Bias Infects The Media’s Self-Examination.

TECHCRUNCH: When everyone is a blogger, nothing you say is off the record.

It’s true.

A BLACK FRIDAY REPORT from LawHawk. Plus, another report from Paul Havemann in Northern New Jersey:

Here in north NJ, there seems to be plenty of activity at the Rockaway Mall. The wife and I got there about 9 am (no predawn vigils for us!), and there was, literally, hardly a parking spot to be found. Judging by the stream of shoppers laden with bags, it won’t be a bleak Friday for retailers.

I hope that’s right, though I suppose the deep discounts ensure that it won’t be very profitable even if sales are high. Oh, well. Meanwhile, crowds were big in Knoxville. “Big crowds greeted such retailers as Best Buy, Target and Belk. By 7:30 a.m. the parking lot at West Town Mall was full.” Also, the outlet malls near Dollywood were packed. More here.

UPDATE: Reader Dirk Schulbach writes: “Date line Woodburn, Oregon, 10:45 PM, Thanksgiving evening. Northbound I-5 lined up 1/2 mile before the exit waiting to get off freeway, southbound I-5 a 3 mile backup waiting to get off the freeway. The Woodburn Outlet Mall was opening at 11 PM and the huge parking lot at the mall was filled to capacity and the frontage roads feeding them packed solid in both directions, pretty much gridlocked. And lots of traffic headed south from Portland towards the mall. Worst economy since the 1930’s? I don’t think so. “

A COLLECTION OF Black Friday toy deals.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: From Market Economy to Political Economy. Like the song says, “they’ll turn us all into beggars ’cause they’re easier to please.”

GREG MANKIW: Redefining “Grownup” and “Hack.” There’s a lot of redefining going on at the moment . . .

I’VE BEEN WARNING ABOUT THE UNDERFUNDED / OVERGENEROUS PUBLIC PENSION PROBLEM for a while, but PensionTsunami.com is a site devoted to just that, as well as corporate pensions and Social Security.

ARI KAUFMAN: What The Obama Kids Will Miss Out On At Private School.

PRAISE FOR OBAMA’S “first-rate economic team” from Karl Rove.

RON COLEMAN: We’re All Chabadniks Now.

DUH. “Due diligence” is only for people the press doesn’t like.

THE ALBANY TIMES-UNION: Shameless, Mr. Rangel. “If Mr. Dingell can lose his control of a powerful committee, who else might? Someone just nominate Rep. Charles Rangel of Harlem, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee? We’ll second that. Mr. Rangel should have been gone already. . . . The chairman of the committee that writes the tax laws already has been caught not paying taxes on vacation property he owns in the Dominican Republic. Mr. Rangel kept his post, though, thanks to House Democrats who have a double standard when it comes to ethics laws. . . . Now Mr. Rangel is back in the news. The New York Times reported the sordid story earlier this week of how Mr. Rangel at once took care of an oil drilling company and himself.”

MICHELE CATALANO on Christmas shopping in a time of recession.

THOUGHTS ON THE MUMBAI ATTACKS, at Captain’s Journal.