IS THE WAR LOST? Three inconvenient truths about Iraq.

IN THE MAIL: John McCain’s new book, Hard Call: Great Decisions and the Extraordinary People Who Made Them.

THE L.A. TIMES has a big report on the Mojave / Scaled Composites explosion. Basically it’s a fairly standard industrial accident, made sexier for news purposes because it’s space-related:

Rutan said the suspected culprit, nitrous oxide, normally is “not considered a hazardous material.” Commonly called laughing gas, it is found in dental offices and is used by hot-rodders to boost the horsepower on their vehicles’ engines.

According to Rutan, company employees were examining the rate at which the propellant flows through an opening. He emphasized that the test, conducted at room temperatures, did not involve igniting the rocket motor or sparking any fire.

Probably something led to a spark in an unforeseen, and perhaps unforeseeable, way.

GOOD NEWS:

In a prison cell south of Cairo a repentant Egyptian terrorist leader is putting the finishing touches to a remarkable recantation that undermines the Muslim theological basis for violent jihad and is set to generate furious controversy among former comrades still fighting with al-Qaida.

I’m in favor of that.

CREATURES FROM The Abyss.

JUNK SCIENCE AND CONGRESS: A firsthand account from Todd Zywicki:

The study’s central findings were that 54½ percent of all bankruptcies have a “medical cause” and 46.2 percent of all bankruptcies have a “major medical cause.” Even if this were true, bankruptcy law already provides adequate safeguards for the special problems posed by medical bankruptcies, as one of us (Mr. Zywicki) testified at the hearing. But it is not true. And the only way to make such a claim is to gerrymander the definition of medical bankruptcies to generate the desired results — true junk social science.

For example, the study classifies uncontrolled gambling, drug or alcohol addiction, and the birth or adoption of a child as “a medical cause.” There are indeed situations in which a researcher may legitimately classify those conditions as “medical,” but a study used to prove Americans are going bankrupt as a result of crushing medical debt is not one of them.

A father who has gambled away his family’s mortgage payment is not the victim of crushing medical bills.

Read the whole thing.

UPDATE: A response from Elizabeth Warren.

ARGUMENTS ABOUT A MARS SAMPLE RETURN MISSION:

At the Mars conference, placing an expensive sample return activity on the exploration agenda, perhaps at the expense of other projects, sparked some anxieties.

“I’m cautiously optimistic,” said Philip Christensen, a leading Mars scientist and professor in the Department of Geological Science at Arizona State University in Tempe. “I am concerned that the sample return mission would take over the Mars program. If you put that mission too far into the future, with not much in between, then you lose a lot of momentum … a lot of young talented scientists and engineers,” he said.

Christensen added that he sees “a real serious challenge” in carving out enough money in the near-term to pay for Mars sample return and still maintain a dynamic program.

“It’s going to take a careful, delicate balance to be able to afford the sample return and yet maintain some measure of a program,” Christensen told SPACE.com at the Mars meeting in Pasadena. “I have no expectation that the program will be as dynamic and vigorous as it has been if we’re going to pay for a sample return. Something’s got to give. But at the same time you can’t just give up everything.”

Plus, of course, there’s the issue of back contamination.

U.S. ATTORNEY declines contempt prosecution.

OBAMA CALLS HILLARY “Bush-Cheney lite?” Hmm. Who’s the Cheney? Bill?

GOOD NEWS: “The economy snapped out of a lethargic spell and grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the strongest showing in more than a year. A revival in business spending was a main force behind the energized performance.” I credit the new Democratic Congress!

MARRIAGE MAKES YOU HAPPIER: Especially if you start off depressed.

NOBODY LOVES ALBERTO: “Gonzo has managed to do something no one else in Washington has managed in years: create a spirit of true bipartisanship. ”

He’s a uniter, not a divider. The Bush Administration wouldn’t have had this problem if they’d listened to me and made Randy Barnett Attorney General! But maybe they’ve been saving him for the Supreme Court . . . .

UPDATE: Ouch: “Gonzales has lost so much credibility that he’s no longer believed even when he is telling the truth.”

VOTER-FRAUD IN WASHINGTON STATE: “King and Pierce County prosecutors filed felony charges today against seven people who allegedly committed the biggest voter-registration fraud in state history. The defendants, who were paid employees and supervisors of ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, concocted the scheme as an easy way to get paid, not as an attempt to influence the outcome of elections, King County Prosecuting Attorney Dan Satterberg said. . . .

“Ladies and gentlemen, this is the worst case of voter-registration fraud in the history of the state of Washington. There has been nothing comparable to this,” state Secretary of State Sam Reed said at a news conference with Satterberg, King County Executive Ron Sims and Acting U.S. Attorney Jeff Sullivan.

It’s not comforting. (Via NewsAlert).

INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY: Richard Milhous Spitzer: “At least Nixon waited a little while before using the tools of state against his political enemies.”

MICKEY KAUS: “Will L.A. Mayor Villaraigosa hold up NBC-Universal’s giant $3 billion development plan if it doesn’t reinstate his honey at its Telemundo subsidiary? If NBC does take care of Mirthala Salinas, does that mean Villaraigosa owes the company? At last, some irresponsible bloggish speculation from the Los Angeles Times.”

AN ELECTRIC-POWERED SPORT PLANE: Range is not extensive.

THE NIGHT SHIFT: From StrategyPage. “There’s a war going on in Iraq that you rarely hear about. It goes on at night, and has been very successful. While U.S. infantry and tank units make raids all over central Iraq, the other war, fought largely at night, by engineers and non-infantry troops (often artillerymen) serving as infantry, to catch and stop teams of terrorists trying to set up roadside bombs.”

A ROCKET EXPLOSION at Mojave Airport. Scaled Composites is there, but so are a number of smaller rocket companies; not clear yet what happened. Explosions are a part of the rocket business, alas.

UPDATE: Jeff Foust posts that TV reports say that it was an accident at Scaled Composites.

ANOTHER UPDATE: More from Rand Simberg.

MORE: Meanwhile, reports of sabotage and drinking at NASA.

STILL MORE: Via Rand Simberg, a Friday morning update. It was a “cold flow” test using nitrous oxide that appears to have accidentally ignited; since no ignition system was present it was probably a spark or something. They’re now saying three dead, all Scaled Composites employees. May they rest in peace.

In truth, this is a pretty routine industrial accident, of the sort that’s basically inevitable when you’ve got activity of any significant size using things that can explode — it’s just the space connection that gets it the attention. Let’s hope the various bureaucrats and politicians don’t see this as an opportunity to make themselves feel important at the expense of the industry. (Bumped).

ETHICS COMMISSION BEGINS review of Spitzer’s office.

More here.

And Professor Bainbridge adds: “Can you imagine what Attorney General Spitzer would have done to a corporate CEO who told two of his executives to stonewall and who tried to fight off an investigation?” He’s got lots more — just keep scrolling.