STRATEGYPAGE:

The US trade deficit (the value of goods bought from China versus what was sold to them) reached $162 billion. That amount accounts for over twenty percent of China’s GDP (total economic activity.) This has serious military implications. If China goes to war with the United States, the first impact would not be bombs, but an end to exports to the United States. Putting over a hundred million Chinese out of work would have a larger impact than any bombing campaign.

This will deter the Chinese, if they’re rational.

UPDATE: Jim Bennett emails: “True. plus, the more foreign oil they import, the more vulnerable they would be to the US Navy cutting off their supplies. Worked wonders on Japan in WWII. Of course, they said all of this about Germany before WWI.” Yes, that’s the problem with the rational-actor assumption.

ANOTHER UPDATE: China is building its military faster than expected:

Reports, and digital photos, getting out of China via the Internet, indicate that the modernization of the Chinese armed forces is some two years ahead of the schedules cited by most Western experts. New aircraft, ships and tanks are showing up sooner than expected, and China is spending money on more training for pilots and ship crews. Not as much training as Western forces get, but more than in the past for China. It appears that the Chinese defense budget will go up another 10-15 percent next year. This is only about half of what Japan spends, but the Japanese pay much more for personnel and equipment. This gives Japan a qualitative edge that the Chinese are trying to close.

China also expects Europe to drop its arms embargo this Summer. This would enable China to more quickly, and cheaply, upgrade warplanes, ships and tanks with more modern, and effective, French and German electronics and weapons.

Oh, goody. Thanks, Jacques! Thanks, Gerhard! We’ll remember the favor, if this comes about . . . .

A USEFUL OXBLOG POST on DDT and malaria prevention, an InstaPundit topic of interest since the beginning.

YOU CAN SEE VIDEO of me, Hugh Hewitt, and John Hinderaker on Kudlow & Co. over at GlennReynolds.com. I was pretty much triple-teamed as I tried to stand up for federalism. You can decide how I did.

UPDATE: Yes, Hugh’s right, it was a very cordial disagreement. Which is how it should be.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Transcript here.

THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO has released its Ward Churchill report. Blogger News Network has a summary, and a link to the full document, but the bottom line is that he’s in trouble for research fraud, etc., but not for his “little Eichmanns” statement.

UPDATE: Victor Davis Hanson, meanwhile, wonders if Ward Churchill even exists.

I’LL BE ON CNBC’S KUDLOW & CO. at about 5:40 Eastern today, along with Hugh Hewitt and John Hinderaker.

STRATEGYPAGE:

The unrest in Kyrgyzstan shows that mass opposition to dictatorship can work in the “Stans” (the former provinces of the Soviet Union that became five independent nations; Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan). The Stans had never been democracies. When the Russians conquered them in the 19th century, the local governments were monarchies or tribal forms. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, former Soviet officials held elections and manipulated the vote to get themselves elected “president for life.” But many people in the Stans want clean government and democracy. It appears that the same kind of mass, and generally peaceful, protests that liberated Eastern Europe from tyranny in 1989, could work in Central Asia as well.

Let’s hope.

PERSONALLY, I think this is just Al Jazeera’s way to sneak in some circulation-boosting Page Three-type action while maintaining plausible deniability . . . .

METAPHOR OVERLOAD from Silflay Hraka, which now has two correspondents in Iraq — more than many newspapers.

WHY DIDN’T THEY SAY THIS BEFORE THE ELECTION?

A federal court should first determine whether a crime has been committed in the disclosure of an undercover CIA operative’s name before prosecutors are allowed to continue seeking testimony from journalists about their confidential sources, the nation’s largest news organizations and journalism groups asserted in a court filing yesterday.

The 40-page brief, filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, argues that there is “ample evidence . . . to doubt that a crime has been committed” in the case, which centers on the question of whether Bush administration officials knowingly revealed the identity of undercover CIA operative Valerie Plame in the summer of 2003.

Well?

IN THE MAIL: Lance Morrow’s The Best Year of their Lives: Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon in 1948. None of them, as best as I can tell from a quick look-through, come across as especially appealing. But I liked the “Interlude” that sets the stage of Washington in 1948. Here’s a bit:

When John Kennedy, Richard Nixon, and Lyndon Johnson were young men in Washington, there were no nightclubs (except the forlorn Blue Mirror downtown), and only a handful of decent restaurants . . . . The tinny National Symphony played in Constitution Hall. The National Theater on Pennsylvania Avenue (around the corner from the Treasury Department, the theater an island of lonely festivity in the surrounding darkness of deserted downtown Washington) offered shows that (if one was lucky) were trying out for Broadway or (if one was not lucky) for earnest cultural exchange companies. . . . Congressman Kennedy fled town when he could.

I remember practicing law in Washington in the late eighties, and having someone tell me that twenty years earlier a senior civil servant could afford to eat anywhere in town. But with the flood of lobbyists that started in the 1970s, things got posher, and now senior civil servants feel poor. That’s a real change.

I like this anecdote, too:

Nicholas Longworth, the former Speaker of the House . . . . who had gone almost totally bald at an early age, was lounging in a leather chair in the Capitol when another member ran his hand over Longworth’s bare scalp and said, “Nice and smooth. Feels just like my wife’s bottom.”

Longworth ran his own hand over his head and said, “Yes, so it does.”

Hard to imagine that line from Dennis Hastert, isn’t it? Or a host of others, these days.

UPDATE: Legions of readers inform me that the bald-head anecdote is an old chestnut dating back to Ramses II if not earlier. Strangely, I’d never heard it before. Live and learn.

A BRUTAL EDITORIAL ON THE E.U. from The Times:

Unfortunately, there appears to be a severe shortage of brainpower at the highest level in France. Even though more jobs will be created than lost, the prospect of any redundancies means the directive has been attacked by the Socialist Party and the trade unions. Not to be outdone, M Chirac has jumped on the bandwagon, seized the wheel, and chose a dinner on Tuesday to condemn liberal market principles as “the new communism of our age”.

This will be a surprise to those who had the misfortune to spend time in the labour camps. In reality, what this sad saga and his ludicrous statement illustrate is that Chiracism is the new infantilism of our era. His crass protectionism is naked populism pure and simple. In a similar vein, as part of yet another political tack, he opted yesterday to embrace the cause of poverty in the Third World (as if those souls had not suffered enough) and this despite his unrelenting refusal to contemplate the wholesale overhaul of a Common Agricultural Policy that condemns millions of people there to abject misery.

Business as usual, in other words.

CHARGES OF JUNK SCIENCE:

While we at American Council on Science and Health have been determined to remain on the sidelines of the raging national debate about the fate of Terri Schiavo (this is largely a legal and ethical issue, not a scientific one), we cannot remain silent about the outrageous misrepresentation of scientific facts about this case that has been occurring in the past ten days.

The medical reality of Ms. Schiavo’s case is this: She has been in what is medically referred to as a “permanent vegetative state” for the past 15 years, ever since her heart temporarily stopped (probably due to the severe effects of an eating disorder), depriving her brain of oxygen. Brain scans indicate that her cerebral cortex ceased functioning — probably just after she experienced cardiac arrest in 1990. Ms. Schiavo’s CAT scan shows massive shrinking of the brain, and her EEG is flat. Physicians confirm that there is no electrical activity coming from her brain. While the family video repeatedly shown on television suggests otherwise, her non-functioning cortex precludes cognition, including any ability to interact or communicate with people or show any signs of awareness. Dozens of experts over the years who have examined Ms. Schiavo agree that there is no hope of her recovering — even though her body, face and eyes (if she is given food and hydration) might continue to move for decades to come.

Those are the harsh facts. . . .

Yesterday, there was another public challenge to Ms. Schiavo’s well-established diagnosis: Florida governor Jeb Bush announced that a “very renowned neurologist,” Dr. William Cheshire, had concluded that Terri had been misdiagnosed and that she was really only in a state of “minimal consciousness” rather than a persistent vegetative state. He used this “new diagnosis” to argue that “this new information raises serious concerns and warrants immediate action.”

As it turns out, Dr. Cheshire is not “renowned” as a neurologist — his limited publications focus on areas including headache pain and his opposition to stem cell research. Dr. Cheshire never conducted a physical examination of Ms. Schiavo, nor did he do neurological tests. . . . Let’s call tripe when tripe is served.

Ouch.

UPDATE: James Taranto links this report and observes:

Reading over the report on Schiavo prepared in 2003 by guardian ad litem Jay Wolfson (link in PDF) helps make clear why this last effort will not succeed. Many physicians have backed the PVS diagnosis, and the courts are unlikely to give much weight to an eighth or ninth opinion at this late stage.

The 38-page report is by and large a persuasive document, showing that the Florida courts did not lightly reach the conclusion that Mrs. Schiavo should die.

I certainly don’t know Ms. Schiavo’s condition, as I’m not a doctor and haven’t evaluated her — not that that’s stopping others. But I think it’s absurd to claim, as many are, that a cabal of liberal judges wants to murder Terri Shiavo because it is — in Peggy Noonan’s absurdly over-the-top phrase — “half in love with death.” To be fair, Noonan aims that phrase at others, really. But I think that many on the right have succumbed to hysteria here. This is a tragic situation, and it’s been turned into a circus.

UPDATE: Reader Jean Tuttle emails: “Mr. Reynolds, I worked as a nurse in ICUs and ERs. I have no idea what kind of brain damage Mrs. Schiavo has ,but I find it hard to believe her EEG is flat.The patients I saw with flat EEGs couldn’t breathe on their own, couldn’t move or make any sound. As I said before I don’t have any idea the amount of brain damage Mrs. Schiavo has, but I would bet the EEG isn”t flat. I think there is so much disinformation coming out of both sides of this ,that it is impossible to know what the facts are.”

That last part is certainly true.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Perhaps this column by Neal Boortz is an answer to Peggy Noonan: “Where do your concerns truly lie, with the eternal soul of Terri Schiavo, or with her earthly body?”

Sissy Willis has more thoughts on hysteria.

MORE: Gerard van der Leun says that Noonan was making a literary allusion that I missed:

Over the top? Perhaps, but more in the line of a literary allusion:

Darkling I listen; and, for many a time
I have been half in love with easeful Death,
Call’d him soft names in many a mused rhyme,
To take into the air my quiet breath;
Now more than ever seems it rich to die,
To cease upon the midnight with no pain,

— Keats, Ode to a Nightingale

And, as such, not really that much beside the point.

Hmm. I had forgotten that — I haven’t read that poem since high school — but I’m not sure that the allusion, if that’s what it is, fits Noonan’s message.

And reader Gerald Dearing emails with this observation, which makes a suitable capper for this post: “You know the debate has truly entered the realm of the surreal when Neal Boortz weighs in with a spirituality argument!”

Indeed.

PICTURES from Kyrgyzstan.

UPDATE: Protest babe sighted — the government is doomed.

ANOTHER UPDATE: On a darker side, reports of looting. From a blog by an NGO worker there.

ATTENTION WEBB WILDER FANS: Reader Glenn Harness emails with information I can’t believe I’ve missed up until now — Webb Wilder has a new CD out. It’s called, appropriately enough, About Time. I haven’t heard it, but I’ve already ordered it.

RICK HASEN has posted an analysis of the FEC’s draft regulations on internet political speech.

WINDS OF CHANGE has a war news roundup. They continue to provide interesting stuff that you don’t see elsewhere.

SKIP INTRO: I pretty much always do. And I’ll bet you do, too.

WANT MORE LAW-BLOGGING? Check out the Carnival of the Lawyers!

MORE COOL WEB VIDEO STUFF: Amazon is sponsoring a short-film competition in which its customers will get to vote for the winner. They seem to be embracing web video in a big way, which I think is very cool

STRATFOR REVERSES COURSE ON IRAQ: I’ve never been a big fan of Stratfor’s analyses, myself, but quite a few people will find this interesting.

MORE VIOLENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN, with the government looking as if it’s on the way out.

UPDATE: More action:

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan – President Askar Akayev and his family left Kyrgyzstan’s capital by helicopter Thursday evening, the Interfax news agency reported, hours after protesters seized government headquarters in Bishkek and claimed control of state broadcasting facilities.

The report, which cited unspecified sources and could not immediately be confirmed, said the helicopter was headed toward Kazakhstan.

Stay tuned.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Tim Russo is pessimistic about the outcome, regardless. He doubts that there will be sufficient engagement by Western nations to promote a real democracy. Judging by the limited attention this is getting outside the blogosphere, he may be right.

ABC JOINS THE LIST of networks that have broadcast bogus memos: “the network admits that it knows nothing about who authored and distributed the memo.”

UPDATE: Patrick Hynes wants a name for this scandal.

WOLFOWITZ AND THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER: Some thoughts from Joe Katzman.

CONSERVATIVE CRACKUP: Is the Republican coalition about to splinter? I examine the question over at GlennReynolds.com.

UPDATE: More here: “In taking jurisdiction over Terri Schiavo’s case from the state courts, where conservative Republicans would have previously said it belonged, and handing it to federal judges, the Republican Party arrogated to the federal government breathtaking new powers that would have made Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan wince.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: Jeff the Baptist writes:

If the Democrats were wise, they would be stripping the fiscal conservative wing off the party right now. But they can’t because that would mean committing to a small government they don’t really want.

Yeah. But all that has to happen is for fiscal conservatives, and libertarians, to stay home. I don’t think that things have come to that pass yet, but I do think that it’s possible.

MORE: John Cole, on the other hand, is proclaiming the death of modern conservatism.

STILL MORE: Joe Gandelman:

George Bush won two elections by getting Benefit Of The Doubt Voters: people turned off by the inept, clumsy, and at times left-of-center campaigns of Al Gore and John Kerry. Post election analyses showed that the Democrats lost many centrists during these elections because Bush was considered the safer choice. Phone calls and emails we’re now getting indicate some of these folks now consider this crew not compassionate conservatives or classic conservatives but members of an increasingly powerful radical right.

What’s even worse for the Republicans is that this is an issue that, fundamentally, isn’t worth a lot to them. At least, I don’t see it leading to a policy victory that would be worth the damage it’s likely to do. As Gandelman cruelly asks: “Who was their advisor? Bob Shrum?”

And the real damage wasn’t from raising the issue. It was from passing special legislation, and responding hysterically. It was from acting the way liberals have acted for years. Follow the Gandelman link, as he has a nice roundup of views from all perspectives. And Mystery Pollster looks at all the various polls.

MORE: Read this post by Stephen Bainbridge, too. And this one.

THE ITALIAN NEWSPAPER CORRIERE DELLA SERRA writes that Bush is a revolutionary:

The first is that when Mr Bush spells out that he is fighting “for freedom and democracy in Arab countries,” he is turning on its head – positively, according to Mr Fassino – the traditional policy of Republican administrations that “supported fascist military dictatorships in South America in the name of political realism.” Mr Bush is not Henry Kissinger, and this cannot be ignored. The second point is that the democratic ferment evident almost everywhere in the Arab world has its origins in a general process of secularization that has not left Muslim societies unscathed. This, too, cannot be ignored by those who, like Mr Fassino, side with people laying claim to these values where hitherto they have been denied, and refuse to support the oppressors merely for fear of jeopardizing the status quo.

(Via Harry’s Place).