Archive for 2005

DOCUMENTARY-O-RAMA: I have a weakness for documentary filmmakers, for obvious reasons, and I’ve gotten a bunch of documentaries in the mail. I sat down last night and watched the Galloway Brothers’ documentary Why Wal*Mart Works: And Why That Drives Some People C-R-A-Z-Y! and thought it was pretty good. (My wife would say it has too many talking heads, and she’d be right, but I don’t mind talking heads that much, and one of them was me.) My favorite bit was when he interviewed a bunch of anti-Walmart types in the boutique district of Boone, N.C., then it became clear that the boutique district did well because (1) Wal-Mart attracted shoppers to the area, and (2) People could afford to shop in the boutique places because they were getting the necessities of life cheap at Wal-Mart. That’s the sort of Big-Small synergy that I talk about in my book.

I haven’t had a chance to watch them, but I’ve also gotten Steven Greenstreet’s This Divided State, and Brian Flemming’s anti-Jesus film The God Who Wasn’t There. I’ll bet Penn Jillette has a copy!

Meanwhile, I eagerly await the documentary on Samuel’s: An American Phenomenon! Narrated by James Lileks, of course.

UPDATE: A more valid criticism of Wal-Mart: “The problems I have with Wal-Mart have nothing to do with wages, health benefits, non-union workers, et al. If they end up losing me as a customer it’ll be due to the fact that a majority of their stores are unkempt and disorganized. Their aesthetic is severly lacking, and in my opinion, that is eventually going to deal a severe blow to their business.”

Yes. If they were minions of Satan, wouldn’t they be more, um, seductive?

MORE: Unlike me, Michael Demmons has seen Flemming’s film, and posts a review.

STILL MORE: Another Flemming review here.

ANOTHER GEEK GIFT GUIDE, this one from Make magazine, and featuring items considerably cheaper than those in the Wired item I linked earlier. Plus, Megan McArdle has a list of recommendations, and you can find more here.

THIS WEEK’S History Carnival is up!

THE “COSTLIEST ENGINEERING MISTAKE IN AMERICAN HISTORY:”

The floodwall on the 17th Street Canal levee was destined to fail long before it reached its maximum design load of 14 feet of water because the Army Corps of Engineers underestimated the weak soil layers 10 to 25 feet below the levee, the state’s forensic levee investigation team concluded in a report to be released this week.

That miscalculation was so obvious and fundamental, investigators said, they “could not fathom” how the design team of engineers from the corps, local firm Eustis Engineering and the national firm Modjeski and Masters could have missed what is being termed the costliest engineering mistake in American history. . . .

“It’s simply beyond me,” said Billy Prochaska, a consulting engineer in the forensic group known as Team Louisiana. “This wasn’t a complicated problem. This is something the corps, Eustis, and Modjeski and Masters do all the time. Yet everyone missed it — everyone from the local offices all the way up to Washington.”

This will cause a lot of conspiracy theories to unravel.

AVIAN FLU UPDATE:

Most U.S. companies haven’t planned for how to stay in business during a flu pandemic, or even if they’ll follow federal advice that potentially contagious employees should stay home, a survey suggests.

Public health specialists and the government are pressuring businesses to prepare for a worldwide outbreak of the bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza, a crisis that could bankrupt many companies if their workers are too sick or scared to show up and their supply chains disappear.

The concern isn’t just because of economics, but because many companies provide products and services that people literally can’t live without, explained Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, who advises the government.

Avian flu may come to nothing, of course. But people should be thinking of this, because the likelihood that some sort of epidemic will strike is too hight to ignore.

UPDATE: Reader Jason Davis emails:

I work for a U.S. consulting firm and I am currently working in Asia. We are assuming that at any point within the next year many borders could be shut down during brief periods. We are particularly planning for a closed border between Hong-Kong and mainland China and are positioning our people appropriately in case of a border crossing freeze. We have estimated the costs and delays to our projects, and it isn’t pretty. I am confident we are not the only organization taking concrete steps, and I imagine the trend will grow and stay with us for a long time to come.

-J

P.S. – I personally am currently sitting in a suburb just outside Jakarta, Indonesia called Tangerang where several of the bird flu cases have been diagnosed. I’m not panicking just yet ;-)

Good. But I’m glad to hear that people are planning for this. Sooner or later, regardless of what happens with avian flu, we’ll need to be prepared.

MICKEY KAUS on economic reporting at the New York Times: “It’s indeed deeply disturbing to learn that higher gas prices have held down demand, causing those prices to fall back to a level at which demand begins to rise again! It’s almost as if some insidious law was at work–as prices rise, demand declines! As supply increases, prices fall! You can’t win!”

Others were similarly amused: “How can anyone read that and not laugh?” Apparently, by being an editor at the NYT!

UPDATE: More here:

During a quarter century of analyzing and forecasting the economy, I have never seen anything like this. No matter what happens, no matter what data are released, no matter which way markets move, a pall of pessimism hangs over the economy.

It is amazing. Everything is negative. When bond yields rise, it is considered bad for the housing market and the consumer. But if bond yields fall and the yield curve narrows toward inversion, that is bad too, because an inverted yield curve could signal a recession.

If housing data weaken, as they did on Monday when existing home sales fell, well that is a sign of a bursting housing bubble. If housing data strengthen, as they did on Tuesday when new home sales rose, that is negative because the Fed may raise rates further. If foreigners buy our bonds, we are not saving for ourselves. If foreigners do not buy our bonds, interest rates could rise. If wages go up, inflation is coming. If wages go down, the economy is in trouble.

I suspect this reflects the bad economic conditions at newspapers, rather than in the nation as a whole. Workers at GM, Ford, and other uncompetitive companies probably have an unrealistically negative view of the economy, too.

DISCO BEAVER from outer space.

JEEZ, IT’S LIKE THEY’RE ALL CROOKS or something:

The top Senate Democrat investigating Jack Abramoff’s Indian lobbying met several times with the lobbyist’s team and clients, held a fundraiser in Abramoff’s arena skybox and arranged congressional help for one of the tribes, records show.

Sen. Byron Dorgan (news, bio, voting record), D-N.D., acknowledges he got Congress in fall 2003 to press government regulators to decide, after decades of delay, whether the Mashpee Wampanoag tribe of Massachusetts deserved federal recognition.

Dorgan met with the tribe’s representatives and collected at least $11,500 in political donations from Abramoff partner Michael D. Smith, who was representing the Mashpee, around the time he helped craft the legislation, according to interviews and documents obtained by The Associated Press.

Amusing diagram here. The problem is that corruption is bipartisan. The Republicans seem worse now, but that’s because they’re in power, and power provides more opportunities.

Of course, if the government had less power, there would be less corruption. Or at least, the corruption in question would matter less.

IF YOU LIE TO GET A STORY, is it wrong? Or is it just good reporting?

JEFF JARVIS IS GLOATING OVER LOW GAS PRICES: He bought the non-hybrid Highlander.

Hey, I’m glad that gas prices aren’t such that my hybrid is a great deal. But my reason for buying it was more aesthetic than economic. I wanted something big, didn’t want a minivan, and didn’t want to get 14 mpg.

One upside — the hybrid Highlander is really very quick, moreso than the gas model if you goose it. I don’t do that much, since jackrabbiting in a truck is kind of silly, but when I’ve needed to merge and floored it I’ve been impressed with the power.

HEH.

OUCH:

Well, I suppose self-pity and bellyaching and sour grapes coming from a dead-tree media outlet over the success of a slick and widely-loved new media outfit like Craigslist really doesn’t come as much of a surprise.

But, holy cow, to make a COVER STORY out of the fact that you and your fellow dead-tree Old Media outlets are getting whupped by better service and greater efficiency (and more timeliness and accuracy)? And then to expect media savvy readers to cry big splashy tears over the fact that you can’t seem to adapt your performance and business models to the new reality? That takes real chutzpah and brings navel-gazing to a whole new level.

Not all old media folks are that dumb. I guest-taught a journalism class on Tuesday with Bob Benz, who runs Scripps’ web operation. He seemed quite aware of the problems newspapers face — which he characterized as more organizational and cultural than technological — and had some good thoughts about what to do with them. I really don’t think that newspapers will die as a result of the web. Well, except for the ones that waste their energies on whining. (Link via Bill Quick.)

UPDATE: Ryan Blitstein, the article of the SF Weekly piece in question, emails:

I really enjoy your blog so I felt compelled to write in response to the post about my story on Craigslist. I think if you read the whole story on Craig (yes, all 6000+ words) you’d see that thegoldengate and dailypundit oversimplified the argument I make in order to attack it.

The story is not about old media getting “whupped” by Craigslist. It describes how Craigslist — in addition to being a great public service for millions — is having an *unintentionally* negative effect on an already-strugging newspaper industry (including independent, local community papers). It then describes how Craig Newmark is personally working to address the problem, and makes the argument that while blogs and citizen journalism are important, for now, they aren’t mature enough to replace the mainstream media, even despite its many faults.

I didn’t see it as a whine — I saw it as a description of a problem, and an argument that the solution is far more complex than many bloggers, citizen journalists, and mainstream reporters make it out to be. I hope when you read it, even if you don’t agree with my arguments, you don’t dismiss it as simply whining.

Well, I did read the whole piece, and I guess “whining” is arguably unfair. But it’s very dismissive of citizen journalism, and takes some cheap shots at Craigslist. Example:

That “category” allows Newmark to keep the domain Craigslist.org, a name that gives the false impression that the site is a nonprofit, by using “.org,” an extension almost exclusively used by nonprofit companies and foundations.

“Almost exclusively?” Not hardly, not for years. Likewise, the reference to Craigslist’s “hush hush profits” seems a bit much.

Craigslist is hurting classified ad revenues, that’s true. And classified revenues are important to newspapers. But the decline of newspapers began long before the Internet threat (read Andrew Krieg’s Spiked: How Chain Management Corrupted America’s Oldest Newspaper for a story from the 1980s illustrating the origins of many practices now blamed on the Internet). And while newspapers suffer, people who use Craigslist — and get apartments, or jobs, that they might not have gotten if they relied on newspaper classifieds — are benefiting. The article notes that every time someone advertises on Craigslist instead of in a newspaper, they’re hurting news coverage. But turn it around: Should they be unemployed, or have trouble finding apartments, so that newspapers don’t have to change?

What’s more, I was a telecom lawyer in the 1980s when the American Newspaper Publishers’ Association fought tooth-and-nail (and successfully) to keep phone companies out of the electronic classified ads business. That means they knew this kind of competition was coming and had two decades to get ready for it, and they still lost out to an ad-hoc Internet startup.

The article’s not a waste by any means. There’s lots of interesting stuff in it, including this about Jeff Jarvis’s new venture:

Newmark is extremely guarded about his own ventures. He reveals only that he’s working on three major projects — advising two new foundations and investing in one start-up company — all in stealth mode. The East Coast start-up was founded by Upendra Shardanand, a creator of Firefly (now Microsoft Passport), software that collects individual user information based on behavior, then recommends appropriate content. Its editor in chief, Buzzmachine.com blogger Jeff Jarvis, created Entertainment Weekly and was a journalist and executive at the New York Daily News. Next spring, they’ll release technology that identifies the most important stories and most “trusted” versions — a computerized or computer-aided “editor.”

Sounds more like a Pajamas Media competitor than I realized. Very interesting.

But on the newspaper front, I think this quote is applicable here:

There has grown up in the minds of certain groups in this country the notion that because a man or corporation has made a profit out of the public for a number of years, the government and the courts are charged with the duty of guaranteeing such profit in the future, even in the face of changing circumstances and contrary to public interest. This strange doctrine is not supported by statute or common law. Neither individuals nor corporations have any right to come into court and ask that the clock of history be stopped, or turned back.

No, they don’t. They can complain to the court of public opinion if they like, but there’s no reason why it has to listen.

I agree that citizen journalism won’t replace newspapers. But I think they’re being hurt far more by technological, cultural, and organizational problems than by technology. And I don’t think the article reflects that at all.

Ed Driscoll has related thoughts. And congrats to Blitstein, anyway, for engaging the criticism, both here and over at Bill Quick’s.

MORE: Thoughts from an insider:

During the whole time I was there I constantly pleaded with the powers that be to do the online version of the classifieds right, the way it could be done with all the power of the web. At that time, 1995, craigslist was still a gleam in Craig Newmark’s eye. The Chronicle owned the classified space for the Bay Area. I created a classified section on sfgate, but it was just an online version of what was in the newspaper, no more, no less. I argued that we should add interactivity, let people purchase ads online cheaply, have pictures and links, make sfgate.com the goto place for everybody in the bay area to buy, sell, rent, and know everything.

But this was utterly impossible. It was a question of turf. There was a large department that sold and processed classified ads. It was a major source of revenue, employed a lot of people, and had a big budget. No way they were going to yield that turf to a bunch of weirdos over at the six person, unprofitable, experimental web site crew. Besides, online ads would cannabalize the whole business. Even as time went on, and craigslist grew and the sfgate website traffic and personnel grew, there was never any possibility of going up against the entrenched bureaucracy. Newspapers are the most old-fashioned organizations left alive in the marketplace. Even book publishing companies are more with it.

Yes, that does seem to be the case.

STILL MORE: Jeff Jarvis emails to say that his startup really won’t be competing with Pajamas Media, but that he can’t say more about the business plan at this point because it’s a startup.

HMM: “Kerry blames election loss on Sept. 11 attacks,” according to The Raw Story.

I’m not sure what to make of that. Would Kerry have won in 2004 if there had been no 9/11 attacks? Possibly. On the other hand, if there had been no 9/11 attacks, Kerry might never have gotten the nomination — his war record, remember, was supposed to immunize him on national security issues, and that was his biggest attraction to many Democrats.

I’m no Harry Turtledove, but in my alt-history version, I think John Edwards or Howard Dean would have been more likely to have gotten the nomination. Of course, if that had happened, Kerry wouldn’t have lost the 2004 election, since he wouldn’t have been running, so I guess in a way he’s right!

MATT WELCH, like a lot of people, has lost perspective over the propaganda-in-Iraq story, but commenter “Tom” restores it:

Good God! We’re talking about propaganda, right?!? Not carpet-bombing, or summary executions, or napalm, chemical and biological weapons, concentration camps, forced marches, slave labor…??? Propaganda!! PROPAGANDA!!!! Are you people insane? Tell me one war where both sides didn’t use propaganda as much as possible. No, no, NOOOO! We don’t want to win using PROPAGANDA! We’d much prefer having to kill thousands more than to win anyone over with PROPAGANDA!

Propaganda is a part of war, and it’s not run according to Poynter Institute seminar standards. One might argue that what the U.S. military was doing is a bad idea — I don’t know one way or another on that — but the howls of outrage seem rather forced. As is so often the case these days.

UPDATE: Reader Don Wolff reminds us that there are worse things in recent Baghdad media history. Perhaps that memory, or a desire to erase it, explains the excessive outrage now.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan, seldom accused of stinting in his Bush criticism these days, comments:

So we’re spinning the Iraqi press by planting propaganda in its pages? BFD. The only problem with this scheme, it seems to me, is not that somehow it’s unethical to use propaganda in wartime, especially in occupied areas where local support is crucial. This is war, as some people still refuse to understand. The problem is that media is now global, the free citizens of Iraq can access information from almost anywhere on earth, and these stories will leak and backfire. We’re adjusting to war in a new media universe. We haven’t adjusted swiftly enough.

This seems to me to be a plausible criticism, unlike Welch’s.

JOHN LEO NOW HAS a blog. Check it out!

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE held to be a right by South Africa’s Supreme Court.

PETER SCHUCK WRITES that America’s law schools have a diversity problem:

Elite law schools cherish robust debate, iconoclasm, and arguing issues from all sides, right? Wrong. The dirty little (not-so) secret about these faculties-that they care much more about diversifying their skin colors, genders, and surnames than about diversifying their points of view-has finally come to the attention of the general public.

Now that the truth is out, law school faculties are likely to come under increased pressure to surrender some of their hiring autonomy. But this pressure would be misguided. If these faculties know what is good for them, they will acknowledge the dearth of dissenting voices within them-and work earnestly to correct the problem from within.

Indeed. By the way, I’ve read Schuck’s new book, Meditations of a Militant Moderate, and I thought it was quite interesting. There’s a small excerpt here.

I DON’T PAY NEARLY ENOUGH ATTENTION to the computer/video game world, and I guess my plans to buy an XBox 360 are on hold . . . but the Carnival of the Gamers is up, and they’re paying a lot of attention.

ETHAN WALLISON is very unhappy with the New York Times.

A SOLDIER IN IRAQ: responds to Bush’s speech: “Please, America, listen to the man.”

A SNAG IN THE PADILLA TRIAL: This does undercut some people’s claims that the Fourth Circuit is a “Constitution-free zone.”