DO NOT BE ALARMED if things change throughout the day. This is still a work in progress.

HASHEMITE UPDATE: Reader Angie Schultz writes:

King Abdullah is apparently a huge Trekkie, and scored a cameo on Voyager.

Did you know that?

Story link

That’s a couple years old. I don’t remember hearing about it before.

This from WarNow.

Dang it, it’s hard not to trust a tiny Arab king who loves Star Trek.

Well, given Osama’s alleged fondness for Asimov I wouldn’t make too much of that. But it is kind of cool.

Er, and strictly speaking, isn’t it the Kingdom that’s tiny, not the King?

ALL YOU BLOGSPOTTERS whose pages aren’t visible: republish! This tip from webgoddess Stacy Tabb.

ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE: Bigger fonts are now in place.

BLOGS AND COFFEEHOUSES: Reader Alan Cook sends this link, and this one on the influence of coffeehouses on modern thought. I think there’s a lot of similarity to the role played by blogs. Though blogging doesn’t cure “minor ailments,” as coffee was once thought to. Er, unless shouting at the television counts as a minor ailment.

JIM LINDGREN has some interesting comments on the Bellesiles developments (Click here for a link to the post by Prof. Michael Tinkler that set this discussion in motion):

Thanks for the VERY interesting post about another Bellesiles story that doesn’t stand up. So he used a research assistant and a spreadsheet for his probate research on guns, contrary to his prior claims.

Of course, Bellesiles first presented his probate research on guns (which was later republished in Arming America) at the OAH meetings in early 1995 and first published almost all of his Arming America probate data in a 1996 JAH article. There was not enough time between the publication of the Ethan Allen book in 1993 and his OAH talk in early 1995 to have done much more than count the records in Philadelphia, the largest of his 40 counties–if he had no other responsibilities and did nothing else with his time. He has always claimed to have worked on Arming America long before 1993 (the year the Ethan Allen book was published). I didn’t read the Ethan Allen book too carefully, but I

don’t remember any counts of guns in probate inventories. The Vermont counties are in his probate samples in both the 1996 JAH article (Table 1) and Arming America (p. 445, Table 1). This new story suggests that he had started on the data for Arming America by 1988, whether he was conceptualizing something like the JAH article or a book we cannot know. But the research that his assistant reported, if done on Vermont estates, would very likely be on estates in his probate samples in Arming America. I would love to see those early counts because–as confirmed both in William & Mary Quarterly (Roth) and in the William & Mary Law Review (Lindgren & Heather)–guns are in about 40% of Vermont estates, not the 14% that Bellesiles claimed. Bellesiles missed guns in over 60% of the inventoried estates in his Vermont samples. I have never had a research assistant even close to this error rate, and I don’t believe that he has either.

If the research assistant is telling the truth about putting her data on a spreadsheet for Bellesiles under his direction–and there is not the slightest reason to suppose otherwise–why would Bellesiles claim that he was unfamiliar with using computers for collecting probate data when he wasn’t? The most obvious answers are either that he did little probate research beyond that done by the research assistant or that her counts were relatively accurate and thus did not match what he wanted to find for Arming America.

In any event, there are now three different stories about when Bellesiles first

noted the small numbers of guns in probate inventories–

(1) in 1989 or 1990 when he had an “epiphany” reading probate inventories in a Vermont courthouse (as he told the New York Times in April 2000 and Hartford Courant in September 2000), (http://www.nytimes.com/learning/students/pop/042300guns-heritage-review.html)

(2) in the early 1980s when he now says that he counted guns and books in Vermont estates (he recently claimed in his website’s revised Vermont probate report to have recorded guns and books in the early 1980s),

http://www.emory.edu/HISTORY/BELLESILES/new.Vermont.html

and

(3) in 1988 when he directed his research assistant to count guns on microfilm

and put her data on a spreadsheet (a story that Bellesiles has never mentioned

himself).

Indeed. I hope that Emory’s investigation looks into this discrepancy in stories.

YES, by the way, I’ve left Blogger for Movable Type. I have the utmost love and respect for Blogger, and Pyra is one of the few companies whose products can legitimately be said to have set off a social revolution. But it’s had a lot of problems, culminating in an episode this weekend when people’s passwords were reportedly published along with their entries. Since MT was bundled into this deal I decided to give it a try.

ALL RIGHT FOLKS, COME ON IN. HAVE A SNO-CONE AND ENJOY THE SHOW. The new InstaPundit site seems to be up and running now. The DNS propagation will take a couple of days, but the new site address will be InstaPundit.Com — the instapundit.blogspot.com address will just get you redirected here for the time being.

Hope you like it. The lovely and talented Stacy Tabb of Sekimori, who comes so highly recommended by Stephen Green, has done the redesign and handled all the details of the move. My only concern is that the new site looks so slick, professional, and non-cheesy that it may inflate people’s expectations. Sorry folks — just the same old me behind it!

BELLESILES UPDATE: Will Bellesiles’ problems undermine the gun control movement? This article from the History News Network says the answer is yes — noting that Bellesiles’ work was part of a coordinated program of scholarship aimed at undermining recent pro-individual rights scholarship. Not only has Bellesiles lost credibility, but the other articles all cite him extensively, which doesn’t do much for their credibility, either. This article draws together a lot of interesting threads in pro-gun-control scholarship, along with extensive links.

THE DANGERS OF HISTORY: Rick Perlstein writes on how Doris Kearns Goodwin came to resemble Lyndon Johnson.

ANDREW SULLIVAN worries about the problem posed by the overclass. His solution is philanthropy. I agree — and wish to point out that while InstaPundit isn’t actually a charity, it should be looked upon as one for giving purposes.

ROBERT MUELLER says that walk-in suicide bombers are coming to the United States, and that there’s nothing we can do to prevent them.

Well, such bombing will have some psychological impact, but not much else. And the psychological impact is going to be as follows: (1) to increase Americans’ tolerance for military action against Arab states that sponsor terrorism, especially Iraq and Saudi-controlled Arabia; and (2) to cause Americans to lose any real concern about civilian casualties in countries with which we are at war.

The last time someone made war largely against American civilians, the response was near-extermination. Is this a game the Islamists want to play? Because they’re stupid, the answer to that question may be yes. Den Beste’s piece on the Mongols and the Assassins is looking more relevant. (Den Beste usually is — just read this one on the difference between warriors and soldiers.)

Think I’m wrong about these consequences? Just read this quote reproduced by Orrin Judd.

THE NEW REPUBLIC joins in the Fisk-Fisking fun. Sounds like they’ve been reading a lot of blogs.

CHINA IS PLANNING A MOONBASE, and wants to set up mining operations there. Take it away, Rand Simberg!

IF YOU HAVEN’T SEEN THIS ALREADY, Wired has a story on how Sony’s latest CD copy-protection technology is readily defeated by magic markers. It may crash your computer, even when you’re just trying to listen to a CD you’ve bought — but it won’t stop anyone trying to make copies, unless the RIAA succeeds in a new campaign to ban magic markers.

Jeez. Maximal inconvenience, minimal effectiveness: Sony must have hired the same corps of elite security specialists who are advising the airport security establishment.

ERIC OLSEN IS RATHER HARSH in a post about Andrew Sullivan. Sullivan should get his permalinks working, though.

I HAD A POST ABOUT A DUMB GEORGIE ANN GEYER COLUMN last week, but Blogger was undergoing one of its periodic epileptic fits, and by the time it was working again I forgot to post it. But Best of the Web has the definitive takedown.

EUGENE VOLOKH compares guns and abortion.

UPDATE: And now he’s got a very interesting post on slippery slopes and gun control, also in response to Mary McGrory’s anti-gun oped today.

TAPPED compares Bush’s use of Air Force One on trips to campaign for Republicans to Hillary Clinton’s use of government travel when she was campaigning for herself, and wants to know why this isn’t hypocritical, given that some Republicans criticized Hillary. Um, isn’t part of the difference that Bush is, you know, the President? And she wasn’t? The Washington Post article that TAPPED links to puts it this way: “The accounting guidelines used by the White House were set in 1982, and Democrats benefited mightily from them during President Bill Clinton’s marathon fundraising swings. Now it’s the GOP’s turn.”

ANOTHER SUCCESS FOR THE SECOND AMENDMENT IN NASHVILLE:

A Forest Hills man shot two armed burglars at his home early yesterday morning and, police say, the burglars were lucky that Roy Luckett grabbed his wife’s gun.

When the burglar alarm went off at 2 a.m. in Luckett’s two-story home at 939 Tyne Blvd., it woke him and his wife, Patsy. Luckett had the choice of two guns in their bedroom — his .45-caliber handgun and his wife’s less powerful, .38-caliber pistol, loaded with ”snake shot” pellets. . . .

Metro police say the two wounded suspects stopped near the Harding Place/Humber Drive intersection and phoned for medical help.

The Lucketts were not injured. Metro police spokesman Don Aaron was quoted in a television report saying that the two suspects were fortunate Roy Luckett chose the gun he did.

Luckett said he does not know why the suspects stayed in the house after the alarm went off.

”They were lucky I didn’t take the .45,” he said.

Stuff like this happens every day. It gets very little attention outside local papers. News that reflects badly on gun ownership, on the other hand, tends to get national play.

THE JUNIOR VARSITY: There’s a funny Sylvester cartoon (actually, they did this theme at least twice) in which Sylvester gobbles gasoline, high explosives, gunpowder, dynamite, etc., and then strikes a match, vanishing in a huge explosion. “Wow, that’s a great trick!” exclaims an onlooker. “Yeah,” says a now-ghostly Sylvester, rising into the sky clutching the inevitable harp. “But there’s just one problem: I can only do it once.”

This news story sent by reader Mark Draughn suggests that the Palestinians may be running into the same difficulty, and are now stuck with the B-Team:

A Palestinian militant detonated explosives at a busy intersection Monday as he was approached by police — killing himself, but causing no other injuries in the second suicide bombing in northern Israel in two days.

The supply of guys smart enough to be successful suicide bombers, but dumb enough to be willing to do it is finite. If they’re not running out now, they will be.

HERE’S A DIFFERENT KIND OF PIECE FROM THE GUARDIAN on Euro-criticism of the United States:

Diplomatically and militarily, Europe is still a pygmy. We can’t solve stuff – old stuff, middle-sized stuff – within our own borders. Why on earth should we presume to lecture the rest of the world on conflict resolution? And what, in honesty, do we have to say, as Europeans, to the White House which should engage their attention?

The Chirac lecture on probity in government? The Berlusconi lecture on trans-media ownership? The Schröder lecture on economic dynamism? Even the Blair lecture on incisive leadership (once I’ve squared Gordon)?

Humility isn’t merely in order, but inescapable – and humility doesn’t begin at Calais. For all the resonance of commandos blowing up empty caves in the Hindu Kush, our own wait-and-see game of hint, smirk and scowl over referendums is just one more reason for the Americans to shrug us away. Speedy on the motes, as Colin Powell might observe, but dead slow on the beams. What use is fixing Sierra Leone if you can’t fix No 11?

Interesting. Perhaps we’re beginning to see the conventional wisdom fray.

IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM. . . . After being savaged throughout the Blogosphere, The Guardian now has a blog of its own. Well, kind of. I mean, it’s no TAPPED, but then they’re new at this.

UPDATE: No they’re not — I’m just an idiot. It’s been around a while. Of course, that means they have no excuse for not being as good as TAPPED.

JIM BENNETT’S UPI COLUMN is a response to Chris Patten’s unity-through-opposition-to-American-tariffs article from The Spectator.

SOME THOUGHTS ON INTELLIGENCE FAILURES: Andrew Hofer agrees that the real problem was a systemic breakdown –as he puts it, the inability of agencies with part of the picture to share information laterally so that the whole picture could be put together. Meanwhile, David Rothkopf writes in Foreign Policy that the business community has the expertise to solve these, and similar, problems in the war on terrorism if allowed.

As best I can tell, the evidence indicates that people had figured out that something was going to happen, and the rather slow and kludgey national security apparatus was starting to move toward doing something about it — but the terrorists were inside our decision curve, and thus able to strike before we were able to act even though we had access (somewhere in the system) to all the information that would have been needed to anticipate the attacks.

In this, as I’ve said before, the learning curve, and the ability to learn and act faster than the enemy, is the key. American civilians, using civilian technology and their own inherent ability to self-organize, were able to neutralize the terrorist plan in 109 minutes, as Flight 93 demonstrates. The national security bureaucracy, on the other hand, still hasn’t fully gotten its act together. This is what we ought to be asking tough questions about. Unfortunately, that threatens the whole feedlot, meaning that very few people in Washington — in either party — have any incentive to ask the right questions.