MICKEY KAUS WONDERS what the FBI is keeping under wraps where the San Diego hijackers are concerned. “One suspects there is a layer of intrigue and incompetence here that we’re not being told about — for example, did the F.B.I. actually know the two men were up to no good and engage in some fatefully-hamhanded attempt to string them along or protect them in exchange for other information?”

As Kaus suggests, it wouldn’t be the first time this has happened, if so.

MORE ON FRANCE: Reader Peter Ingemi sends these thoughts on why France is likely to be targeted for terrorism in the near future:

The French are the natural target of Al Qaeda at this point. The UN is the one place where they can deter the US diplomatically and France is the one to do it.

It is very clear to them by now that attacks on the US are not going to deter them, (although they will be done if practicable) in fact any attack on a scale less than an airline disaster will be seen as a weak response.

There is also no point in attacking England which is solidly behind us. Given the character of the British it is more likely, not less likely to drive them into our arms.

Russia has a history, and that history says they have no compunction about attacking and slaughtering Al Qaeda and any of their friends in ways much more troubling than Americans can think of.

China is even more likely than Russia to retaliate, (and I suspect they have much more knowledge of Al Qaeda then they let on) in fact a public attack on Al Qaeda might be a diplomatic coup for China. Don’t be surprised to see one with a lot of press for small potatoes.

France is a totally different matter, it has a veto in the UN, Its ability to project military power is less than all of the others by far, it has a large Arab population, huge economic ties to the Arab world, and a history of appeasement, anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism. I personally think France never recovered psychologically from in succession being conquered by Germany, driven out of Indochina, and driven out of Algeria.

Truly or falsely Al Qaeda will figure that France is the target that can be pressured by terror and the attack on the mayor and the Cole style strike are in my opinion aimed in that direction.

Interesting observation.

UPDATE: It’s a France-a-thon at InstaPundit! Reader Thomas Briggs monitors French media regularly and offers this observation:

I listen to the French evening news just about every day (amazingly three networks are streamed free later in the same day at www.tf1.fr; at www.france2.fr; and at www.france3.fr), and so I can report that there’s no punch pulling whatever on the Arab nut-job who stabbed the mayor of Paris. The evening news on Channel Three interviewed the guy’s Arab-surnamed neighbors, filmed his building in one of those Stalinist/Robert Moses-looking tower complexes that the French do so well, and mentioned his views on homosexuals in politics. The news also reported that he’s got ten arrests already on his rap sheet!

Your readers are also wrong, I think, about how the French will react to terror attacks against them. The lead story in Le Monde this morning is “French Tanker on Fire: Terrorism’s Shadow.” (The second lead is “Homophobic Aggression against Delanoe,” by the way.) I understand the spirit of Vichy as well as any of your readers, but I believe that the real danger today comes from the thought that Qaida is the Hyperpower’s problem and that maybe France can stay off the target list. But the latest Cole-type attack changes everything. The practical effect of the tanker attack will likely be to dump the French into the same boat with us: we’ll then all sink or float together. French efforts to find a third way have been undermined.

Well, in fairness to Mr. Ingemi, he suggested that peeling the French off was the plan — not necessarily that it would work. Judging Western reactions has not been a strong point of the Ladenites, or of Saddam Hussein for that matter.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Stephen Gordon has some thoughts on this, inspired by the latest “bin Laden” tape.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: The France-a-thon continues, with this from Claire Berlinski:

Thomas Briggs is right on both points. Peter Ingemi rightly observes that France is something of a swing voter where the Islamic world is concerned. But the conclusion he draws from this premise is wrong. The key to the French psyche is the word “bribery.” Whether explicitly or by tacit agreement, the French now have something of a deal going with the terrorists — leave France alone, and France will do a few favors for their sponsors in the UN and from time to time instruct a foreign minister to say something handsome about the dangers of American military hegemony. If the bombs start going off in Paris, this will change faster than you can say “seven years without a trial” — which is the length of time the putative 1995 subway bombers have been rotting in French prisons, under conditions that have no doubt been immensely less attractive than those at Camp X-ray. While it’s true that neither al Qaeda nor the heavies of the Ba’ath regime have been terrific at gauging probable Western reactions to their actions, it doesn’t take profound insight into France and its history to see that this is the deal, and that it’s in their favor. I doubt they’ll want to screw up something that is, from their point of view, a very good thing. One can’t be sure when dealing with lunatics, but that’s my instinct, anyway.

Reader Phillipe Richard adds:

If this is what Al Qaeda intended, it was pretty silly. I mean, France once bombed a ship owned and operated by Greenpeace because it being used to protest nuclear tests.

Stay tuned.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Rod Dreher says that if the stabber had been a fundamentalist Christian people would be making a bigger deal of his religion, which seems right to me.

THE FRANCE-A-THON CONTINUES! Nelson Ascher writes from Paris:

As far as I can tell, in Israel, those who distrust the Arabs most deeply are the Sephardic Jews, who have lived among them for generations. The Jewish left that is in any way sympathetic to the Palestinians is usually recruited among the Ashkenazis. Thus, here in France, you’ll find, among those who were driven out of North Africa, a hatred of Arabs and Muslims for which there is no correspondence in the US. They know them, their habits and frequently speak their language. An anti-Arab backlash in France is not exactly a remote hypothesis. And I am sure their cops and secret services know much more about the local Muslims than they would publicly admit. The sudden end or at least interruption of most anti-semitic acts immediately after the elections is proof enough of it: they knew the culprits, their addresses and phone numbers. The French were also quick in getting to the guys behind the 95 bombings and they also captured their own Osama, Carlos the Jackal. Besides, if the government turns against the Arabs and Muslims, I believe that most of the French intellectuals, who are now so vociferously their allies, will soon fall in line, because almost all French intellectual activity is, at least partly, state-sponsored, and the boss here is not fond of too much criticism. Let’s wait and see.

Indeed we shall.

CLAIRE BERLINSKI WRITES FROM PARIS THAT I’M WRONG:

The French media don’t seem to me to be ignoring the fact that the assailant was a Moslem. It’s been mentioned fairly prominently (and indeed with some exuberance) in every news account I’ve read. Anyway, this guy seems to be a complete nutball, more John Hinckley or Daniel White than Mohammed Atta. According to Le Monde, (link), the cops had at least 15 files on him, half concerning drugs, the others, theft. He’s been in and out of psychiatric hospitals for years. He lives with his parents; he’s evidently spent time in prison. So at first blush, the fact that he’s a Moslem appears to be irrelevant. However, the article continues — his is just my own crude translation — “At the foot of his building, about twenty young adults described their neighbor’s personality … Daniel remembered above all that this childless bachelor “didn’t much like homosexuals,” and that “he made this clear to everyone he hung out with.” On that matter, opinions among the group were unanimous. “He was a bit like us,” continued Abdel. “We’re all homophobic here, because it’s not natural,” or because “it’s against Islam,” adds Samir, for whom “gay Moslems, they don’t exist.”

So perhaps the assailant’s ethnic and cultural background is worth a bit of reflection after all.

In any event, Delanoë is recovering nicely, and I’m pleased to report that the rest of the city loves having an openly gay mayor. Ever since he came into office, the whole city has just been so festive. Readers may recall that he turned the Seine into a scene from beach blanket Babylon, complete with cute little cafe tables under parasols and a special beach for dogs. What other mayor would encourage the whole city to forget about work and party all night long?Free croissants for everyone who makes it to sunrise! (I’m not kidding.) City-wide scavenger hunts! Outdoor movies on a huge screen by Notre Dame, free to everyone! More rollerblading along the freeways by the Seine! Sound-and-light shows at Montmartre! Trapeze artists in City Hall! The ancien régime was more security conscious, to be sure, but having Delanoë in office is like having sex without a condom: It’s not so safe, but it’s a hell of a lot more fun.

Vive Delanoë!

Claire Berlinski

Interesting. The English language reports that I saw focused on the drug and mental illness angles, but didn’t even mention that he was a Muslim. As for the fun-loving character of the Delanoe mayoralty, well, I’m glad Claire’s enjoying it.

NEW SHOOTING IN MARYLAND: A 13-year-old boy has been shot outside a middle school in Bowie, Maryland and is in critical condition.

UPDATE: Another reader writes that there are unconfirmed reports of another shooting outside a Bowie Wal-Mart. (Later: That turns out to be false — see below). And Richard Aubrey writes:

If you were a parent of a Bowie, MD, middle school student, would you feel better knowing that half a dozen of the teachers and staff were armed and trained?

Would you feel worse?

Better. Several readers also suggest that this makes terrorism seem more likely as the motivation. I think so, too, though I can’t say exactly why. This just doesn’t seem to fit the pattern for your typical serial killer.

ANOTHER UPDATE: The Sky Blog has a post on this.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Justin Katz has some more thoughts. And several readers speculate that the bogus call regarding a shooting at Wal-Mart was a diversion.

LOOK OUT! There’s a new breed of South Park Republicans on the loose.

That’s kind of scary, actually.

AIMEE DEEP CLAIMS TO KNOW THAT Bin Laden is dead. I hope she’s shared this information with the appropriate authorities.

THE LATEST POLLS HAVE BIG MEDIA VERY HAPPY!

THE ARMED-PILOTS ISSUE isn’t over. Here’s an alert from the Airline Pilots’ Security Alliance saying that Congress may let the issue drop, and calling for action. Check it out if you’re following this issue.

THE CLAIM THAT “WARBLOGGERS” IDOLIZE OLIVER NORTH has been checked into and, unsurprisingly, turns out to be false. North, after all, was an inept grandstander who sold weapons to America’s enemies. Such qualities tend not to do well in the Blogosphere.

UPDATE: Reader David Walser emails this correction:

“North, after all, was an inept grandstander who sold weapons to America’s enemies.” I disagree. North was very good at grandstanding. He did it so well he made the professional grandstanders questioning him look like rank amateurs.

Heh. Point taken. Though just to be clear, it wasn’t the grandstanding that I was calling inept.

FRENCH READER PHILIPPE RAMOFF wonders why the ongoing Paris trial of the 1995 subway bombers is not getting more attention in the United States, and particularly in the Blogosphere. Good question. Here’s another story on the trial. There’s also an Al Qaeda connection (article in French; here’s a Google translation). And here is a story from June about British reluctance to extradite one of the subjects.

As I’ve said before, I think that the Algerian connection to Al Qaeda may turn out to be more important than is generally appreciated. I also wonder if there’s a connection with the stabbing of Bertrand Delanoe.

UPDATE: Here’s an article from the Washington Times that’s interesting because it shows French unhappiness with the British refusal to extradite — and includes claims similar to those that American officials are making about France:

Indeed, Ramda’s fate has become a thorn in British-French relations.

“I profoundly regret that Great Britain hasn’t taken the decision to extradite one of the suspected accomplices in this affair,” French Foreign Minister Dominique Perben said last week. “I hope we won’t have to wait indefinitely.”

“If London doesn’t want to send us Ramda, it’s because they want to avoid problems on their own soil with radical Islamists,” one anti-terrorist judge told Le Monde. “All the files handled in France lead, at one point or another, to London.”

Takes one to know one, perhaps, but the French have a point about the centrality of London in global Islamic extremism.