OCEANIA HAS NEVER BEEN IN A RECESSION: It’s Home-Building Season, but No One Is Buying Lumber.

Lumber prices have tumbled into building season, a sign that residential construction and home-improvement markets are buckling under high borrowing costs.

The price of two-by-fours, which skyrocketed during the pandemic, is a reliable leading indicator for the housing market. Lately it is flashing caution.

Lumber futures shed 3% Friday to end at $452.50 per thousand board feet, down 27% since mid-March. Wood has piled up in the market and pushed cash prices even lower.

Trade publication and pricing service Random Lengths said its framing-lumber composite price, which tracks on-the-spot sales, fell this past week to $366, the lowest since May 2020. Southern yellow pine, favored for fences and decks, has also dropped to its lowest prices since the depths of the Covid market crash. Random Lengths’ Southern pine composite price declined to $335 this past week.

“The spring rally never happened,” said Russ Taylor, a Vancouver wood-market consultant. “No one is making much money at these prices.”

Everything is going swimmingly.