ROGER KIMBALL: Trump Has Iran Over A Barrel.
What, after all, is he up to? The commentariat proffers several conflicting narratives. The one common thread is the certainty with which these opinions are uttered. Trump is an idiot. Trump is a genius. For those who say that he has thrown in the towel – that Iran has “won” – I’d offer two observations.
First, it is an odd sort of winning a war when your adversary eliminates your navy, air force, most of your air defense capability, large swaths of your stock of missiles and drones along with the industrial capacity to produce them, not to mention two or three levels of your top leadership, all within a matter of days.
Second, anyone who has pondered President Trump’s adventures in foreign policy knows that two things are true of him. He is a constant advocate for peace. He is also waspish when crossed. Just ask Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian terror-lord whom Trump vaporized in a drone attack during his first term. Cast your mind back to last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer, when a fleet of B-2s, supported by a passel of Tomahawk cruise missiles, buried Iran’s three major nuclear sites. Remember what happened to Nicolás Maduro in January? And then, of course, there is the fury of Operation Epic Fury.
Trump held Iran’s head underwater for six weeks. He pulled it up and let it sputter while he offered the mullahs an off-ramp. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio, responding to the press, is right. “The idea that somehow this President, given everything he’s already proven he’s willing to do, is going to somehow agree to a deal that ultimately winds up putting Iran in a stronger position when it comes to nuclear ambitions is absurd!”
Indeed. Trump is waiting impatiently while the Iranians prance and posture. The IRGC tried laying some mines in the Strait of Hormuz and: pow! The US took out the boats involved and destroyed a surface-to-air missile battery in Bandar Abbas that was targeting US warplanes. “These were defensive strikes,” a US spokesman said. “They do not indicate the ceasefire is over.”
What they do indicate is that Trump is serious about his terms. First, the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, not Iran’s territorial property. Shipping must be free to travel through it. Second, Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. A codicil to that imperative is that Iran must relinquish or destroy (under supervision) its approximately 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Third, Iran must stop funding terrorist proxies in Lebanon, Gaza – and elsewhere.
There are some things left off Trump’s list of demands. The most prominent has to do with the Iranian people. Back in January, when the mullahs were slaughtering protesters by the tens of thousands, Trump promised that “help is on the way.” In announcing the start of Epic Fury on March 1, Trump said US and Israeli joint military action would so damage the regime that the people could oust the leaders and replace the government. That hasn’t happened yet.
Opinions differ about the resilience of the Shia regime in Iran. I suspect that, like most totalitarian regimes, it presents to the world a seamless carapace of bluster. But the strength of that shell is deceptive. Once a few cracks appear, it may quickly shatter.
Now that Iran’s Internet censorship has partly broken down, we’re seeing images of riots, demonstrations and unrest. My speculation is that we’ve been running guns in to the opposition — no doubt with help from the Mossad, which seems to have penetrated Iran everywhere — and that the revolution will break out when it’s time. But that’s just speculation.
