TM LUTAS MAKES A PREDICTION:

Out of the 18 Iraqi provinces, 3 kurdish ones have their greatest security threats being foreign incursion from Turkey and Iran. Terrorism is successfully kept out. 4 arab provinces are under local management and we rarely, if ever, do anything there. That’s 7 down, 11 to go with the rest of the provinces in various stages along the road towards handover. I fully expect that when the balance is 10:8 instead of 7:11 that we’re going to see a sea change in coverage because “a majority of Iraq is under local control and relatively quiet” and all the MSM is going to realize that if they don’t get on the right side of this quickly, the deluge of broken credibility will very likely worsen and shorten their personal careers significantly.

I expect at least 3 more provinces to get handed over between now and the height of campaign season 2008. I’d like to think that at least 6 more would make the transition by then (obviating the need to explain Kurdistan’s special situation in the stats). The defeatists have to change the natural progression of Iraqi government and security institution building and do it soon or they’re going to be in deep trouble in 2008.

I certainly hope he’s right.

UPDATE: Reader Kjell Hagen makes another prediction:

By summer 2008, things will be have improved considerably in Iraq, but it will not be reported. The MSM will focus on the presidential election, and whoever is in favor of the Iraq engagement will be slammed by the MSM.

By spring 2009, the MSM will report that, yes, now everything is much better in Iraq. Whoever is president, especially if he/she is a democrat, will get the credit. Bush will still be blamed.

Sounds plausible!